polymarket Technology

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?

65%+
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (152d) 24h volume $1.8K Open interest $7.7K Event Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
30%
implied YES probability
-1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 10 days · High 45% · Low 20% · 7d -10.9pp
45%20%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Other outcomes in this event

55%+
89% YES
24h vol $371
60%+
54% YES
24h vol $846

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.