Kestrel Group, Ltd.(KG)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $8.07 – $31.61
- YTD
- +57.45%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 0
- Straddle Price
- $7.05
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.25
- Market Cap
- $0.1B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.71% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.46% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.38% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | -74.2pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj -25bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $10.69 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $9.66 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 228.0% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $10.69 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Industry (SIC)
- FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE (6331)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $0.1B
Kestrel Group Ltd specializes in providing fronting services to insurance program managers, MGAs, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers with two reportable segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsurance. The Group facilitates insurance transactions utilizing its management contracts with four insurance carriers. Its line business includes casualty, workers' compensation, catastrophe-exposed property, and non-catastrophe-exposed property, with diverse risk durations, sizes, and product types.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +16.83% | 1 |
| Feb | +29.55% | 1 |
| Mar | -28.60% | 1 |
| Apr | -13.25% | 1 |
| May | +0.94% | 2 |
| Jun | +1.29% | 2 |
| Jul | +4.76% | 2 |
| Aug | -3.65% | 1 |
| Sep | +4.88% | 1 |
| Oct | -13.80% | 1 |
| Nov | -25.55% | 1 |
| Dec | -32.44% | 1 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | Pre-Market | 31.09% | 3.73% | 0.12x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 0
- IV Rank (7D)
- 0
- Avg IV
- 0.0%
- Straddle (30D)
- $7.05
- Straddle (7D)
- $7.05
- P/C Volume
- 0.25
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.10
- Correlation (SPY)
- 18.8%
- R²
- 0.04
- Ann. Volatility
- 74.7%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.7%
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Michael Hotchkiss | Director | Award (A) | +5,718 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-12 | Erik Cohen | Director | Award (A) | +5,718 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-12 | Joseph Brecher | Director | Award (A) | +5,718 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-12 | Jeffrey Weissmann | Director | Award (A) | +5,718 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-12 | STEVEN HAROLD NIGRO | Director | Award (A) | +5,718 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-20 | Terry Lee Ledbetter | Executive Chairman | Mixed | +133,039 | $9.96 | -$127.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-20 | Patrick J Haveron | President and CFO | Mixed | +126,315 | $10.14 | -$197.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-20 | BRADFORD LUKE LEDBETTER | Chief Executive Officer | Mixed | +133,039 | $9.96 | -$127.0K | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-09 | Jeffrey Weissmann | Director | Award (A) | +2,337 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-09-09 | Michael Hotchkiss | Director | Award (A) | +2,337 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-09-09 | Erik Cohen | Director | Award (A) | +2,337 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-09-09 | Joseph Brecher | Director | Award (A) | +2,337 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-09-09 | STEVEN HAROLD NIGRO | Director | Award (A) | +2,337 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-29 | Joseph Brecher | Director | Award (A) | +5,500 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-29 | BRADFORD LUKE LEDBETTER | Chief Executive Officer | Award (A) | +905,882 | — | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terry Lee Ledbetter | Executive Chairman | 1,003,074 | $8.72M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-20 |
| 2 | BRADFORD LUKE LEDBETTER | Chief Executive Officer | 598,729 | $5.20M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-20 |
| 3 | Patrick J Haveron | President and CFO | 234,367 | $2.04M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-20 |
| 4 | LAWRENCE F. METZ | See Remarks | 102,597 | $891.6K | $0 | 1 | 2025-05-29 |
| 5 | STEVEN HAROLD NIGRO | Director | 22,055 | $191.7K | $0 | 3 | 2026-06-12 |
| 6 | Joseph Brecher | Director | 13,555 | $117.8K | $0 | 3 | 2026-06-12 |
| 7 | Jeffrey Weissmann | Director | 8,055 | $70.0K | $0 | 2 | 2026-06-12 |
| 8 | Michael Hotchkiss | Director | 8,055 | $70.0K | $0 | 2 | 2026-06-12 |
| 9 | Erik Cohen | Director | 8,055 | $70.0K | $0 | 2 | 2026-06-12 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.