TransAlta Corporation(TAC)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$12.79
- 52-Week Range
- $10.02 – $17.88
- YTD
- -1.75%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 14.4
- Straddle Price
- $1.70
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.13
- Market Cap
- $4.3B
Fair Value
-50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.47% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.97% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.97% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +66.3pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $13.12 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $13.33 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 150.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
Peers used for multiples: BLDP, ENPH, NXT, PLUG, SEDG, TE
Blended Fair Value
$3.92
Current Price
$12.74
Deviation
-50.0%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gated
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -1.0% | -1.15 | -1.21 | 6.2% | — |
| 42d | -2.7% | -1.47 | -1.21 | 6.2% | — |
| 63d | -2.4% | -0.65 | -1.21 | 6.2% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $3.92 | 100% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | median 9.8× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 6.7× · 5 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $13.12 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-04 · updated 2026-06-04 17:50:06.473000
Info
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $4.3B
TransAlta Corp is an independent power producer based in Alberta, Canada. The company operates a diverse electrical power generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Western Australia. The company has reportable segments namely, Hydro, Wind & Solar, Gas, Energy Transition segment and Corporate Segment. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the gas segment.
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | -4.04% | 6 |
| Feb | -3.66% | 6 |
| Mar | -4.59% | 6 |
| Apr | -0.63% | 6 |
| May | +6.21% | 6 |
| Jun | +0.14% | 6 |
| Jul | +5.92% | 5 |
| Aug | -3.89% | 5 |
| Sep | +4.17% | 5 |
| Oct | +3.87% | 5 |
| Nov | -0.46% | 5 |
| Dec | +3.69% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $13.33
SMA 50: $13.12
SMA 200: $13.58
Current: $12.74
EMA 12: $13.66
EMA 26: $13.37
MACD: 0.2908 | Signal: 0.0231
BULLISH
ADX (14): 24.03
WEAK TREND
+DI: 23.73
−DI: 28.55
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 42.63
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 63.94
Stoch %D: 81.60
Williams %R: -83.54
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $14.67
BB Lower: $11.99
NEUTRAL
OBV: 19,757,044
Vol SMA 20: 1,436,436
Vol ROC: 137.05%
ATR: $0.54
True Range: $1.76
HV 20: 55.2%
HV 30: 50.6%
HV 60: 44.8%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-04T17:50:17.891000
Date Range: 2024-06-05T00:00:00 – 2026-06-03T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 14.4
- IV Rank (7D)
- 56.24
- Avg IV
- 107.3%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.70
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.02
- P/C Volume
- 0.13
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.20
- Correlation (SPY)
- 34.7%
- R²
- 0.12
- Ann. Volatility
- 41.1%
- SPY Volatility
- 11.9%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
11 filers$34.77M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $10.32M | 29.68% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $5.56M | 16.00% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $5.27M | 15.17% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ Custodian | $4.71M | 13.55% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | Waratah Capital Advisors Ltd. | $4.45M | 12.81% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $1.73M | 4.99% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | PEAK6 LLC | $1.64M | 4.71% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | Ausdal Financial Partners, Inc. | $393.00K | 1.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | $251.17K | 0.72% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC | $219.48K | 0.63% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | DRW Securities, LLC | $213.53K | 0.61% | 2026-03-31 |
5 filers$15.50M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $7.32M | 47.19% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $5.23M | 33.76% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $2.28M | 14.71% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $514.83K | 3.32% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | $157.80K | 1.02% | 2026-03-31 |
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.