What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 44%, implying a 44% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 25, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Closes Oct 25, 2027 (402d) 24h volume 6.2K Open interest 358.9K Event Brazil Presidential election winner?

44%

implied YES probability

-1.5pp 24h

Last 88 days · High 69% · Low 45% · 7d -2.1pp · 30d -28.1pp

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 43.5¢

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.