What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Mentions

Recession

Closes Sep 17, 2026 (1d) 24h volume 334 Open interest 733 Event What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?

12%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 17 days · High 22% · Low 10% · 7d -31.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.