What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 08, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 85

Settles Nov 08, 2026 (32d) All outcomes: Gemini App Downloads in October 2026

chance of YES78%

Price range (2d)

19–82%

24h volume

102

$1 contracts

Open interest

870

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 2d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.