What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 09, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

7,800 to 7,824.9999

Settles Oct 09, 2026 (2d) All outcomes: S&P price range on Oct 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Futures

chance of YES16%

Price range (120d)

12–12%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.