What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 19, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 85

chance of YES98% +1.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

82–98%

· 7d +20 pts

24h volume

2.2K

$1 contracts

Open interest

5.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$19K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 55100%13.0K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 1, 4:40 PM ET	YES	98¢	2,000	$2K
Oct 1, 10:56 AM ET	YES	95¢	5,849	$6K
Oct 1, 12:22 AM ET	YES	93¢	6,086	$6K
Sep 26, 11:56 PM ET	YES	93¢	1,500	$1K
Sep 26, 11:52 AM ET	YES	93¢	1,100	$1K
Sep 24, 12:55 PM ET	YES	91¢	3,200	$3K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.