What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 90%, implying a 90% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 19, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 92

chance of YES90% +12.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

73–93%

· 7d +24 pts

24h volume

3.5K

$1 contracts

Open interest

14.8K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$8K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 55100%13.0K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 1, 4:40 PM ET	YES	88¢	1,151	$1K
Sep 30, 3:21 PM ET	YES	81¢	1,250	$1K
Sep 30, 3:19 PM ET	YES	76¢	5,574	$4K
Sep 27, 12:09 PM ET	YES	69¢	2,117	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.