What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Companies

Above 10000

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume — Open interest 2.2K Event How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026?

implied YES probability

Last 17 days · High 15% · Low 5% · 7d +42.9pp

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.