What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 28%, implying a 28% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

TSMC / TSM

chance of YES28% -31.5pp in 24h

Price range (40h)

37–60%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 40h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

eBay95%3.2K