What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 28%, implying a 28% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

December 31

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume $382 Open interest $36.1K Event Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

28%

implied YES probability

-3.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 75% · Low 29% · 7d -11.3pp · 30d -33.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.