polymarket
World
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
June 30
0%
implied YES probability
-1.1pp 24h
Price history
Last 62 days ·
High 31% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -89.1pp
· 30d -96.2pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Trump says Israel ’very happy’ with Gaza disarmament agreement
Investing.com · 1d ago
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Factbox-Where Trump, Israel and Hamas stand on Gaza roadmap
Investing.com · 1d ago
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Hamas, Israel to Hold Firm in Gaza Unless Other Moves First
Bloomberg Politics · 1d ago
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