polymarket
World
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
June 30
3%
implied YES probability
+1.1pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 56% ·
Low 2%
· 7d +3.3pp
· 30d -80.6pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in this event
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