polymarket Economics

Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

3 (75 bps)
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (104d) 24h volume $3.5K Open interest $93.3K Event How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
20%
implied YES probability
+4.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 88 days · High 55% · Low 1% · 7d +72.9pp · 30d +549.1pp
55%1%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Other outcomes in this event

2 (50 bps)
59% YES
24h vol $8.1K
1 (25 bps)
16% YES
24h vol $27.1K
4 (100 bps)
2% YES
24h vol $1.6K
5+ (125+ bps)
0% YES
24h vol $4.0K
0 (0 bps)
0% YES
24h vol —

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.