What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

↑ $790

Closes Sep 01, 2026 (7d) 24h volume $21 Open interest $43.7K Event What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?

implied YES probability

-0.8pp 24h

Last 31 days · High 53% · Low 4% · 7d -89.8pp · 30d -90.9pp

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.