What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 22%, implying a 22% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

↑ $780

Closes Sep 01, 2026 (7d) 24h volume $1.1K Open interest $43.7K Event What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?

22%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 31 days · High 91% · Low 11% · 7d -71.0pp · 30d -48.0pp

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.