What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Technology

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

August 14, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume $1.4K Open interest $149.8K Event GPT-6 released by…?

implied YES probability

-0.8pp 24h

Price history

Last 24 days · High 19% · Low 2% · 7d -62.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.