polymarket Technology

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

August 31, 2026
Closes Jan 01, 2027 (129d) 24h volume $5.1K Open interest $190.4K Event GPT-6 released by…?
1%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 48 days · High 60% · Low 1% · 7d -83.9pp · 30d -96.3pp
60%1%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

December 31, 2026
70% YES
24h vol $1.2K
November 30, 2026
60% YES
24h vol $8
October 31, 2026
48% YES
24h vol $7
September 30, 2026
36% YES
24h vol $1.8K
September 15, 2026
19% YES
24h vol $240
July 31, 2026
0% YES
24h vol —
August 7, 2026
0% YES
24h vol —
August 14, 2026
0% YES
24h vol —

Recent news mentioning this market

Related stocks

GPT EA Series Trust Intelligent Alpha Atlas ETF

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.