Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

The prediction market for Mojtaba Khamenei's public appearance by June 30 is currently pricing in a 3% probability of the event occurring. This assessment is informed by known facts about Khamenei's typical public appearances and his role as Supreme Leader of Iran. The current price suggests that the market does not expect a significant change in Khamenei's public visibility between now and June 30. For the price to move upward, new information would need to emerge indicating an increased likelihood of Khamenei making a public appearance during this timeframe. Conversely, if there is no credible evidence of Khamenei being seen in public by June 30, the market price could decrease.