polymarket Technology

Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?

August 31
Closes Dec 01, 2026 (98d) 24h volume $1.6K Open interest $67.3K Event Gemini 4.0 released by...?
2%
implied YES probability
-5.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 27 days · High 50% · Low 1% · 7d -16.0pp
50%1%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

November 30
81% YES
24h vol —
October 31
57% YES
24h vol $3
September 30
18% YES
24h vol $20.8K
September 15
14% YES
24h vol —
July 31
0% YES
24h vol —
June 30
0% YES
24h vol —

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.