Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

The prediction market is asking whether Ukraine will recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026. The current price of 0.09 implies an 8% probability that this event will occur. Known facts informing the current price include ongoing military conflicts and diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia over Crimea's status. A significant change in these dynamics or a major shift in the military balance could potentially drive the price up, while further escalation of tensions or stalemate in negotiations might push it down. The market's resolution will be determined by the International Crisis Group (ICG) map, which defines captured territory as any part of Crimea shaded blue on the map by the specified date and time.