Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

The prediction market on whether New People (NL) will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election currently indicates a 40% probability, with a YES price of 0.40. This assessment is informed by known facts about the political landscape and party standings prior to the election. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development that would significantly impact the outcome, but rather represents a general consensus among market participants. A change in the popularity of NL among voters, shifts in coalition formations, or unexpected events could potentially alter the price, with an increase indicating a higher perceived likelihood of NL gaining the most seats and a decrease suggesting a lower probability. The market will resolve according to the actual results of the election, with any uncertainty resolved by September 30, 2027.