What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Technology

Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

1540

Closes Sep 30, 2026 (104d) 24h volume $485 Open interest $9.7K Event Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

12%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 77 days · High 64% · Low 10% · 7d -19.4pp · 30d -43.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

AREN The Arena Group Holdings, Inc.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.