COPZ Defiance Daily Target 2X Long Copper Miners ETF
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Defiance Daily Target 2X Long Copper Miners ETF (COPZ) ETF
- Exchange
- ARCX
- Inception
- 2026-02-17
- Has Options
- No
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | — | 0 |
| Feb | +21.02% | 1 |
| Mar | -39.13% | 1 |
| Apr | +0.88% | 1 |
| May | +19.25% | 1 |
| Jun | -26.68% | 1 |
| Jul | +4.57% | 1 |
| Aug | +37.49% | 1 |
| Sep | -15.22% | 1 |
| Oct | +4.50% | 1 |
| Nov | — | 0 |
| Dec | — | 0 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: COPZ
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers:
- Bullish momentum from MACD crossover
- Overbought RSI, indicating potential sell signal
- High volatility and beta >1.5, indicating high risk
Primary Risks:
- Technical breakdown below Bollinger Bands' lower band ($11.40)
- Earnings misses or negative news sentiment
Investment Thesis: COPZ is a highly volatile stock with mixed signals from technical indicators. While it shows bullish momentum from MACD crossover, RSI suggests potential sell signal due to overbought conditions. The high beta and volatility increase the risk, making it essential to monitor key levels and position sizing.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: No recent news available.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): NEUTRAL Medium-term (1-3 months): BEARISH (based on MACD signal) Long-term (3-12 months): BULLISH (based on trend indicators)
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower band: $11.40 (support)
- Middle band: $14.16 (resistance)
- Upper band: $16.92 (resistance)
Momentum Signals: RSI interpretation: Overbought (>70), potential sell signal MACD signal: Bearish crossover (negative momentum) Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze, indicating overbought conditions
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 17566.90
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -225363.16 (bearish signal)
- Volume Rate of Change: 17.67% (increasing volume)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: No recent news available.
Sentiment Assessment: NEUTRAL (no significant news or events)
Catalyst Identification: No upcoming earnings, product launches, or regulatory changes.
Market Narrative: No significant market narrative or thematic trends affecting COPZ.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Metrics:
- Beta: 5.51 (high risk)
- Alpha: -1.28
- Correlation: 0.75
- Stock Volatility: 1.07
- Interpretation: High volatility, stock moves more than market
Options Market Signals:
- IV Premium vs HV30: N/A (positive = implied richer than realized)
Downside Protection:
- Support levels: $11.40 (lower band)
- Risk management considerations: monitor position sizing and use stop-loss levels.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: No specific sector performance available.
Institutional Activity: No significant institutional activity or volume patterns suggesting interest.
Correlation Analysis: COPZ has a high correlation with the market (R-squared = 0.75), indicating it moves similarly to the broader market.
Relative Valuation: COPZ is relatively underpriced within its trading range, but this assessment should be reevaluated considering the recent volatility and news sentiment.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support/resistance levels mentioned above
- Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Upper band ($16.92): potential resistance
- Middle band ($14.16): potential support
- Lower band ($11.40): potential support
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No upcoming earnings, product launches, or regulatory changes.
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels: monitor and adjust based on position sizing
- Position sizing considerations: reevaluate risk tolerance and adjust accordingly
Overall Analysis: COPZ is a highly volatile stock with mixed signals from technical indicators. While it shows bullish momentum from MACD crossover, RSI suggests potential sell signal due to overbought conditions. The high beta and volatility increase the risk, making it essential to monitor key levels and position sizing. No recent news available; therefore, focus on monitoring technical signals and adjusting risk management accordingly.
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 5.22
- Correlation (SPY)
- 70.1%
- R²
- 0.49
- Ann. Volatility
- 99.8%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.4%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
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