Napco Security Technologies, Inc(NSSC)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$37.31
- 52-Week Range
- $29.21 – $48.12
- YTD
- -9.85%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 18.13
- Straddle Price
- $3.30
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.00
- Market Cap
- $1.3B
Fair Value
-20.4% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.50% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.00% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.97% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +45.6pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 14.5% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -3.1% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.1B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 20.8% |
| Book / Price | 13.2% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 57.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 28.6% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 5/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +10.0% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $39.47 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $36.49 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 29.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.1B |
| Market Cap | $1B |
Peers used for multiples: ALRM, BE, GNRC, ON, PSN, REKR, SHLS, SLAB
Blended Fair Value
$29.70
Current Price
$37.29
Deviation
-20.4%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gated
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -3.0% | +0.15 | -0.71 | 44.1% | — |
| 42d | -6.2% | -0.32 | -0.71 | 44.1% | — |
| 63d | -8.4% | -0.66 | -0.71 | 44.1% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $18.40 | 23% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $4.30 | 18% | |
| Peer P/E | $67.30 | 10% | median 64.7× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $43.19 | 10% | median 25.0× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/B | $22.23 | 2% | median 4.5× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $19.37 | 7% | median 3.5× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $39.47 | 29% | stability 63% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-26 · updated 2026-06-26 20:59:30.580000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC (3669)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $1.3B
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc manufactures security products, encompassing access control systems, door-locking products, intrusion and fire alarm systems and video surveillance products. Its products are used for various applications which includes alarm systems like automatic communicators, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panel and area detectors mainly used for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial and governmental uses. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +2.82% | 22 |
| Feb | +4.27% | 23 |
| Mar | +4.68% | 23 |
| Apr | -1.70% | 23 |
| May | +3.59% | 23 |
| Jun | +2.83% | 23 |
| Jul | +4.19% | 22 |
| Aug | +1.45% | 22 |
| Sep | -3.43% | 22 |
| Oct | -0.01% | 22 |
| Nov | +5.87% | 22 |
| Dec | +1.98% | 22 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $36.52
SMA 50: $39.33
SMA 200: $41.39
Current: $37.29
EMA 12: $37.07
EMA 26: $37.33
MACD: -0.2566 | Signal: 0.3239
BEARISH
ADX (14): 22.12
WEAK TREND
+DI: 16.95
−DI: 22.65
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 49.41
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 74.45
Stoch %D: 75.74
Williams %R: -27.66
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $38.49
BB Lower: $34.55
NEUTRAL
OBV: -12,637,110
Vol SMA 20: 552,890
Vol ROC: 96.96%
ATR: $1.32
True Range: $0.94
HV 20: 36.6%
HV 30: 34.2%
HV 60: 47.4%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-26T21:15:21.627000
Date Range: 2024-06-28T00:00:00 – 2026-06-26T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
6 of 8 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | After-Close | 11.63% | 1.47% | 0.13x | Within |
| 2024-11-04 | Pre-Market | 14.32% | 9.30% | 0.65x | Within |
| 2025-02-03 | Pre-Market | 14.56% | 28.86% | 1.98x | Exceeded |
| 2025-05-05 | Pre-Market | 12.95% | 4.89% | 0.38x | Within |
| 2025-08-25 | Pre-Market | 13.56% | 6.12% | 0.45x | Within |
| 2025-11-03 | Pre-Market | 12.00% | 7.68% | 0.64x | Within |
| 2026-02-02 | Pre-Market | 13.38% | 11.27% | 0.84x | Within |
| 2026-05-04 | Pre-Market | 10.81% | 15.71% | 1.45x | Exceeded |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 18.13
- IV Rank (7D)
- 18.13
- Avg IV
- 69.7%
- Straddle (30D)
- $3.30
- Straddle (7D)
- $3.30
- P/C Volume
- 0.00
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.30
- Correlation (SPY)
- 38.6%
- R²
- 0.15
- Ann. Volatility
- 42.0%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.5%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 35,992,500 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
Notice of Proposed Sale (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-03-03
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
0 filings
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. Amendments (Form 144/A) and post-cancellation refilings can inflate this if you sum naively; the rollup above excludes filings with zero stated value.
Source & freshness: Parsed directly from EDGAR primary-doc XML. Daily refresh; new filings typically appear here the morning after they hit EDGAR.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | RICHARD SOLOWAY | Officer, Director | 55,318 | $2.39M | 2026-03-03 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-02 | RICHARD SOLOWAY | Officer, Director | 129,682 | $5.83M | 2026-03-02 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-05 | RICHARD SOLOWAY | Officer, Director | 150,000 | $6.32M | 2026-02-05 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-07 | Spinelli Stephen M | Officer | 19,000 | $788.5K | 2025-11-10 | Ameriprise Financial | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-30 | Spinelli Stephen M | Officer | 5,000 | $140.4K | 2025-06-02 | Ameriprise Financial | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-08-28 | BEEBER PAUL STEPHEN | Director | 708 | $32.9K | 2024-08-28 | Charles Schwab & Co. | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-06-18 | BEEBER PAUL STEPHEN | Director | 860 | $44.8K | 2024-06-18 | Charles Schwab Corp | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-05-10 | Spinelli Stephen M | Officer | 3,000 | $133.9K | 2024-05-13 | E Trade from Morgan Stanley | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-05-07 | Soloway, Richard | Officer, Director | 250,000 | $11.44M | 2024-05-08 | Needham & Company, LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-03-12 | BUCHEL KEVIN S | Officer, Director | 50,000 | $2.02M | 2024-03-12 | Wells Fargo Clearing Services | — | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 35.9 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.5 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.2B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.0B |
| TTM EPS | $1.04 |
| ROE | 20.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.45% |