Penske Automotive Group, Inc.(PAG)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $140.12 – $189.51
- YTD
- +17.27%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 16.8
- Straddle Price
- $12.35
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.10
- Market Cap
- $11.9B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.96% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 8.98% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +11.5pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +43bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 25.8% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +2.6% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.6B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 16.3% |
| Book / Price | 47.5% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 16.4% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 1.9% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.39 |
| Quality Score | 3/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +9.3% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $164.31 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $168.66 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 9.3% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $2.1B |
| Market Cap | $12B |
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -3.5% | -0.19 | -0.92 | 19.9% | — |
| 42d | -3.1% | +0.31 | -0.92 | 19.9% | — |
| 63d | -1.0% | +0.69 | -0.92 | 19.9% | — |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $111.71 | 20% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $77.30 | 16% | |
| Peer P/E | $137.17 | 9% | median 9.5× · 5 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $107.86 | 9% | median 6.3× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/B | $118.72 | 2% | median 1.4× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/S | $134.53 | 6% | median 0.3× · 5 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $164.31 | 39% | stability 100% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Industry (SIC)
- RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS (5500)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $11.9B
Penske Automotive Group operates in 19 US states and overseas. It has about 150 US and Puerto Rico light-vehicle stores as well as 217 franchised dealerships overseas, primarily in the United Kingdom but also in Australia, Germany, Italy, and Japan. The company is the third-largest US publicly traded dealership in terms of light-vehicle revenue and sells more than 40 brands, with over 90% of retail automotive revenue coming from luxury and import names. Other segments are service and finance and insurance. The firm's Premier Truck Group owns 45 truck dealerships selling mostly Freightliner and…
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.19% | 19 |
| Feb | +1.22% | 19 |
| Mar | +1.61% | 19 |
| Apr | +8.10% | 19 |
| May | -1.38% | 19 |
| Jun | +0.27% | 19 |
| Jul | +7.18% | 19 |
| Aug | -0.99% | 19 |
| Sep | +0.22% | 19 |
| Oct | -0.45% | 19 |
| Nov | +2.27% | 19 |
| Dec | +0.17% | 19 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-31 | Pre-Market | 6.10% | 5.60% | 0.92x | Within |
| 2024-10-29 | Pre-Market | 7.68% | 1.72% | 0.22x | Within |
| 2025-02-13 | After-Close | 5.18% | 5.78% | 1.12x | Exceeded |
| 2025-04-30 | Pre-Market | 6.21% | 1.12% | 0.18x | Within |
| 2025-07-30 | Pre-Market | 6.26% | 1.79% | 0.29x | Within |
| 2025-10-29 | Pre-Market | 8.06% | 1.54% | 0.19x | Within |
| 2026-02-11 | Pre-Market | 5.84% | 3.92% | 0.67x | Within |
| 2026-04-29 | After-Close | 5.78% | 0.46% | 0.08x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 16.8
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 45.9%
- Straddle (30D)
- $12.35
- Straddle (7D)
- $5.55
- P/C Volume
- 0.10
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.64
- Correlation (SPY)
- 30.5%
- R²
- 0.09
- Ann. Volatility
- 26.1%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $3.69M | 33.20% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $3.07M | 27.55% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.80M | 25.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $1.05M | 9.41% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $523.32K | 4.70% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $3.71M | 38.99% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.45M | 25.79% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | LOGAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC | $1.58M | 16.63% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.14M | 11.98% | 2025-09-30 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $627.98K | 6.60% | 2026-03-31 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | RAYMOND E SCOTT | Director | Grant (A) | +12 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-05 | GREG C SMITH | Director | Grant (A) | +178 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-05 | Wolfgang Duerheimer | Director | Grant (A) | +195 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-05 | Sandra E. Pierce | Director | Grant (A) | +98 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-05 | David Hoogendoorn | Director | Grant (A) | +12 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-05 | Lisa Ann Davis | Director | Grant (A) | +209 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-03 | Claude H III Denker | EVP - Human Resources | Tax (F) | −2,977 | $170.44 | -$507.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | Michelle Hulgrave | EVP & CFO | Mixed | −4,218 | $170.92 | -$721.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | Shane M. Spradlin | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec. | Tax (F) | −3,181 | $170.44 | -$542.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | ROBERT H JR KURNICK | President | Tax (F) | −5,552 | $170.44 | -$946.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | ROGER S PENSKE | Chair & CEO | Tax (F) | −27,598 | $170.44 | -$4.70M | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-20 | GREG C SMITH | Director | Sell (S) | −1,488 | $160.02 | -$238.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-12 | Claude H III Denker | EVP - Human Resources | Award (A) | +4,992 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-12 | ROBERT H JR KURNICK | President | Award (A) | +9,984 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-12 | ROGER S PENSKE | Chair & CEO | Award (A) | +39,935 | — | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROGER S PENSKE | Chair & CEO | 34,333,500 | $6.21B | $41.33M | 47 | 2026-06-03 |
| 2 | MITSUI & CO LTD | 10%+ Owner | 10,658,163 | $1.93B | -$100.00M | 1 | 2018-03-27 |
| 3 | MITSUI & CO USA INC | 10%+ Owner | 2,890,645 | $523.09M | -$100.00M | 1 | 2017-10-23 |
| 4 | H BRIAN THOMPSON | Director | 118,008 | $21.35M | $194.1K | 20 | 2025-12-18 |
| 5 | MICHAEL R EISENSON | Director | 74,591 | $13.50M | $0 | 20 | 2025-12-18 |
| 6 | ROBERT H JR KURNICK | President | 74,096 | $13.41M | -$8.99M | 44 | 2026-06-03 |
| 7 | EUSTACE W MITA | Director | 71,693 | $12.97M | -$10.34M | 3 | 2008-11-07 |
| 8 | Robert OShaughnessy | EVP - Finance and CFO | 68,533 | $12.40M | -$193.5K | 6 | 2011-02-16 |
| 9 | RICHARD J PETERS | Director | 66,760 | $12.08M | -$1.43M | 10 | 2013-12-18 |
| 10 | Roger S Jr Penske | Director | 66,055 | $11.95M | $0 | 13 | 2020-03-05 |
| 11 | RONALD G STEINHART | Director | 51,912 | $9.39M | -$1.15M | 22 | 2024-12-13 |
| 12 | GREGORY W PENSKE | Vice Chair | 49,157 | $8.90M | $0 | 9 | 2025-12-18 |
| 13 | LUCIO A NOTO | Director | 44,674 | $8.08M | $0 | 42 | 2018-03-05 |
| 14 | Shane M. Spradlin | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec. | 34,963 | $6.33M | -$4.47M | 49 | 2026-06-03 |
| 15 | David K. Jones | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | 34,239 | $6.20M | -$461.2K | 11 | 2015-06-02 |
| 16 | Calvin Sharp | EVP - Human Resources | 33,203 | $6.01M | -$147.9K | 16 | 2015-06-02 |
| 17 | Claude H III Denker | EVP - Human Resources | 30,688 | $5.55M | -$3.62M | 28 | 2026-06-03 |
| 18 | John D. Jr. Carlson | EVP & CFO | 28,359 | $5.13M | -$1.15M | 23 | 2021-06-03 |
| 19 | Sandra E. Pierce | Director | 24,077 | $4.36M | -$1.90M | 60 | 2026-06-05 |
| 20 | Michelle Hulgrave | EVP & CFO | 19,096 | $3.46M | -$1.87M | 14 | 2026-06-03 |
| 21 | WILLIAM J LOVEJOY | Director | 16,000 | $2.90M | $0 | 42 | 2018-03-05 |
| 22 | HIROSHI ISHIKAWA | EVP - Int'l Bus. Development | 12,950 | $2.34M | $12.9K | 3 | 2010-02-19 |
| 23 | Lisa Ann Davis | Director | 3,017 | $546.0K | -$575.8K | 43 | 2026-06-05 |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 0001628280-26-035192 | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-29 | 0001628280-26-028227 | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-11 | 0001628280-26-007173 | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-19 | 0001628280-25-053042 | EDGAR |
| 2025-10-29 | 0001628280-25-047006 | EDGAR |
| 2025-10-15 | 0001628280-25-045120 | EDGAR |
| 2025-07-30 | 0001019849-25-000093 | EDGAR |
| 2025-07-23 | 0001019849-25-000091 | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-16 | 0001019849-25-000059 | EDGAR |
| 2025-04-30 | 0001019849-25-000046 | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 0001628280-26-012830 | EDGAR |
| 2025-02-21 | 0001019849-25-000022 | EDGAR |
| 2024-02-16 | 0001019849-24-000033 | EDGAR |
| 2023-02-21 | 0001019849-23-000038 | EDGAR |
| 2022-02-18 | 0001019849-22-000013 | EDGAR |
| 2021-02-19 | 0001558370-21-001299 | EDGAR |
| 2020-02-21 | 0001558370-20-001163 | EDGAR |
| 2019-02-22 | 0001558370-19-000917 | EDGAR |
| 2018-02-22 | 0001558370-18-000944 | EDGAR |
| 2017-02-24 | 0001558370-17-001005 | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 0001628280-26-028868 | EDGAR |
| 2025-10-30 | 0001628280-25-047533 | EDGAR |
| 2025-07-31 | 0001019849-25-000097 | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-01 | 0001019849-25-000050 | EDGAR |
| 2024-10-30 | 0001019849-24-000121 | EDGAR |
| 2024-07-31 | 0001019849-24-000096 | EDGAR |
| 2024-04-30 | 0001019849-24-000058 | EDGAR |
| 2023-10-30 | 0001019849-23-000148 | EDGAR |
| 2023-07-27 | 0001019849-23-000114 | EDGAR |
| 2023-04-27 | 0001019849-23-000068 | EDGAR |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 13.2 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.1 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0 |
| TTM Revenue | $32.1B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.9B |
| TTM EPS | $14.04 |
| ROE | 16.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.20 |