kalshi Economics

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

Before 2027
Closes Jan 01, 2027 (152d) 24h volume 5.8K Open interest 678.9K Event Next Fed rate hike?
68%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 75% · Low 20% · 7d -2.9pp · 30d +30.8pp
75%20%

Other outcomes in this event

Before 2028
82% YES
24h vol 665
Before July 2027
76% YES
24h vol 2.3K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by December 31, 2026. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent rate hikes and its ongoing efforts to combat inflation. The current price does not reflect any specific event or announcement that would necessarily change the market's expectations. Instead, it appears to be a reflection of the market's overall view on the likelihood of future rate hikes. Any significant changes in economic data or monetary policy decisions could potentially impact the market's assessment and cause the price to move up or down.
Generated Jul 30, 2026

Top of book

BidSizeAskSize
67.0¢ 6167 68.0¢ 163
66.0¢ 1001 69.0¢ 723
65.0¢ 2215 70.0¢ 392
64.0¢ 1034 71.0¢ 1475
63.0¢ 11045 72.0¢ 3
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 67.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.