What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 09, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Troy Jackson

chance of YES2% -0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

1–3%

24h volume

604

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.