What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 07, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above $6.305

Settles Oct 07, 2026 (0d) All outcomes: Diesel prices tomorrow

chance of YES16%

Price range (6h)

34–60%

24h volume

1.3K

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 6h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.