What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 48%, implying a 48% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above $6.24

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Diesel prices this week

chance of YES48% +0.5pp in 24h

Price range (30h)

34–52%

24h volume

471

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 30h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.