What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 21%, implying a 21% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 09, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Oct 09, 2026 (2d) All outcomes: Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/2-10/9)?

chance of YES21% -27.0pp in 24h

Price range (37h)

10–49%

24h volume

1.5K

$1 contracts

Open interest

978

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 37h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.