What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Grok

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Best AI this week

chance of YES2% +1.0pp in 24h

Price range (26h)

1–3%

24h volume

10.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

8.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

0% on YES

hourly, 26h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Gemini78%5.0K

Claude22%4.4K

Qwen0%2.4K

Dola0%1.8K

Kimi0%1.8K

MUSE0%5.0K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 5, 7:48 PM ET	NO	99¢	1,500	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.