What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 20, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Dan Driscoll

Closes Jan 20, 2029 (855d) 24h volume 250 Open interest 2.5K Event Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

implied YES probability

Last 16 days · High 12% · Low 2% · 7d -45.5pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.