What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 47%, implying a 47% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 20, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

No other person

Closes Jan 20, 2029 (948d) 24h volume 125 Open interest 8.6K Event Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

47%

implied YES probability

Last 36 days · High 51% · Low 35% · 7d -14.0pp · 30d +10.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.