What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 64%, implying a 64% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Phoenix

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11)?

chance of YES64% +56.5pp in 24h

Price range (29h)

8–71%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 29h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.