What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 47%, implying a 47% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

gemini-4-argon-high

Settles Oct 31, 2026 (24d) All outcomes: Top AI model this month

chance of YES47% -13.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

54–84%

24h volume

197

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.