What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 05, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Nobel

Settles Oct 05, 2026 (0d) All outcomes: What will Trump say this week?

chance of YES6% -2.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

8–46%

24h volume

31.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

24.6K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

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