What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 48%, implying a 48% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Moon

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: What will Trump say this week?

chance of YES48% -22.0pp in 24h

Price range (39h)

25–72%

24h volume

440

$1 contracts

Open interest

582

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 39h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

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