polymarket Finance

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

October Meeting
Closes Oct 29, 2026 (133d) 24h volume $6 Open interest $27.8K Event Fed rate hike by...?
20%
implied YES probability
-8.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 78 days · High 42% · Low 13% · 7d -29.6pp · 30d +7.5pp
42%13%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

September Meeting
17% YES
24h vol $35
July Meeting
7% YES
24h vol $22
June Meeting
1% YES
24h vol $286

Recent news mentioning this market

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.