polymarket
Finance
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
October Meeting
92%
implied YES probability
+1.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 92% ·
Low 38%
· 7d +41.9pp
· 30d +137.7pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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FTSE 100 Live: Traders Trim BOE Rate-Hike Bets After Inflation Data
Bloomberg Markets · 2h ago
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Inflation Data Points to Rate Hike: JPMorgan's Rasid
Bloomberg Markets · 4h ago
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Goldman flips on Fed rate hike, then backtracks on forecast
TheStreet · 5h ago
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U.S. stock futures drift higher with Fed rate hike in focus
Investing.com · 7h ago
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Lifeward sets date for 2026 annual and extraordinary shareholder meeting
Investing.com · 10h ago
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.