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Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
October Meeting
66%
implied YES probability
+5.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 74% ·
Low 14%
· 7d -4.4pp
· 30d +48.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Fed dissenters sketch the case for a rate hike
Investing.com · 20h ago
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Analysis: Markets heard a dovish Kevin Warsh. The Fed chairman's own words suggest a rate hike
CNBC Top News · 22h ago
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Balchem outlines $650M credit facility through 2031 while forecasting 22.5%-23% 2026 tax rate
Seeking Alpha · 23h ago
AI analysis
The prediction market is currently pricing a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the target federal funds rate by October 2026. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent monetary policy decisions and economic indicators. The current price would be influenced upward if there are signs of inflationary pressures or strong economic growth, while downward pressure could come from a slowing economy or concerns about global market volatility.
Generated Jul 09, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.