polymarket
Finance
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
July Meeting
0%
implied YES probability
-22.4pp 24h
Price history
Last 88 days ·
High 41% ·
Low 3%
· 7d +73.2pp
· 30d +27.5pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Fed dissenters sketch the case for a rate hike
Investing.com · 21h ago
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IBD Live Q&A Summary, Stock Lists For Friday, July 31, 2026
IBD · 22h ago
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Analysis: Markets heard a dovish Kevin Warsh. The Fed chairman's own words suggest a rate hike
CNBC Top News · 22h ago
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Balchem outlines $650M credit facility through 2031 while forecasting 22.5%-23% 2026 tax rate
Seeking Alpha · 23h ago
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July FOMC Meeting: A Cautious Hold With Credibility Implications
Seeking Alpha News · 1d ago
AI analysis
The prediction market is currently pricing in a 21% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by July 2026 meeting. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent rate-hiking cycle and the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. The current price would increase if there were signs of a strengthening economy, leading to increased pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. Conversely, a weakening economic outlook or a shift towards dovish monetary policy could cause the price to decrease.
Generated Jul 29, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.