What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 60%, implying a 60% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 29, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

September Meeting

Closes Oct 29, 2026 (88d) 24h volume $20.3K Open interest $199.3K Event Fed rate hike by...?

60%

implied YES probability

+5.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 70% · Low 10% · 7d -0.8pp · 30d +65.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by September 2026 meeting. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent rate-hiking cycle and the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. The current price would increase if there are signs of persistent inflation or strong economic growth, which could prompt the Fed to take a more aggressive stance on interest rates. Conversely, a decline in inflationary pressures or concerns about economic weakness could lead to a decrease in the probability of a rate hike by September 2026 meeting.

Generated Jul 23, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.