polymarket
Finance
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
September Meeting
88%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 88% ·
Low 22%
· 7d +61.5pp
· 30d +274.5pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Fed Talk: A September Rate Hike Would Be A Fool's Errand
Seeking Alpha News · 14h ago
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September FOMC preview: possibility of rate hike, hawkish dot plot, divided Fed
Seeking Alpha · 18h ago
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FTSE 100 Live: Traders Trim BOE Rate-Hike Bets After Inflation Data
Bloomberg Markets · 2h ago
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Inflation Data Points to Rate Hike: JPMorgan's Rasid
Bloomberg Markets · 4h ago
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Goldman flips on Fed rate hike, then backtracks on forecast
TheStreet · 5h ago
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.