What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 29, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?

April Meeting

Closes Oct 29, 2026 (88d) 24h volume — Open interest $199.3K Event Fed rate hike by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.