What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 22%, implying a 22% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Technology

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?

↑ 1540

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (106d) 24h volume — Open interest $35.1K Event Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

22%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 56 days · High 62% · Low 8% · 7d +11.8pp · 30d +28.9pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.