Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

The prediction market is asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by July 15. The current price of 0.04 implies a 4% probability that this event will occur. Known facts informing the current price include the fact that Khamenei has been reclusive and rarely appears in public, which suggests that his appearance is not guaranteed. Factors that could increase the likelihood of Khamenei being seen in public by July 15 include changes in his health or a significant political event that requires his presence. Conversely, if Khamenei's reclusive nature continues unabated, the price would likely decrease.