Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

The prediction market is asking whether Supreme Leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by July 15. The current price for a "Yes" outcome implies an 8% probability. This assessment is informed by the fact that there has been limited recent public activity from Khamenei, suggesting he may continue to maintain a low profile. A significant change in this market's price would require new information about Khamenei's planned appearances or changes in his security detail that could increase the likelihood of him being seen in public during the specified timeframe.