What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 99%, implying a 99% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?

October 31

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (106d) 24h volume $550 Open interest $249.6K Event Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

99%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 12 days · High 99% · Low 60% · 7d +3.6pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

AAPL Apple Inc.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.