What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Tom Begich

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (138d) 24h volume $21 Open interest $25.4K Event Alaska Governor Election Winner

30%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 40% · Low 22% · 7d +5.3pp · 30d -20.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Other outcomes in this event

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.