BLBD Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock

XNAS 60.73 Delayed
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Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading

Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.

BLBD $60.73 —
Key stats
$60.73
52-Week Range
$46.14 – $83.39
YTD
+29.87%
IV Rank (30D)
85.48
Straddle Price
$9.25
P/C Vol Ratio
2.00
Market Cap
$2.0B
Open
$59.10
Day Range
$58.92 – $60.88
Volume
175,193
Prev Close
$58.09
Fair Value
MODEL: NEUTRAL

A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.

  • DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
  • Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
  • DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
  • P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
  • Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
  • Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
  • Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
  • Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
10-yr Treasury (rf)4.90%
Beta vs SPY1.07
Cost of Equity (CAPM)10.78% (VRP-adj)
WACC10.60%
Volatility Risk Premium+43.8pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps
Effective Tax Rate13.1%
Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input)+26.3%
DCF Horizon12 years explicit + fade
Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM)×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S)
Free Cash Flow (TTM)$0.2B
Return on Equity (TTM)43.0%
Book / Price32.1% — banking bias active (P/B is primary)
Gross Margin (TTM)20.6%
FCF Margin (TTM)9.5%
Debt / Equity0.17
Quality Score4/6 — high quality (12y DCF)
Market-Implied Growth+3.3% (reverse-DCF on current price)
SMA 50$58.49 (Market Anchor value)
SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid$57.36
Bollinger Width / SMA208.1% (drives anchor stability)
Net Debt$-0.0B
Market Cap$2B
Peers used for multiples: ALV, LEA, RIVN, VIRT (filtered from 8 ETF-co-members; sector bias active)
60-Day Conviction
8%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 8, 2026
$60.58
α -0.1% rank 89%
conviction
11%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 6, 2027
$61.38
α +1.2% rank 89%
conviction
42%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Feb 4, 2027
$60.49
α -0.3% rank 89%
conviction
8%
MethodImplied PriceWeightDetail
DCF $237.21 21%
DDM (Gordon) n/a 0%
Peer P/E $85.19 9% median 9.4× · 3 peers
Peer EV/EBITDA $33.67 9% median 5.1× · 3 peers
Peer P/B $55.52 2% median 3.0× · 4 peers
Peer P/S $52.98 6% median 1.1× · 4 peers
Market Anchor (SMA50) $58.49 41% stability 100% (BB-width)
Options Expected (B-L 30d) $58.89 11% 11 strikes · skew +0.03
As of 2026-11-09 · updated
About
Industry (SIC)
TRUCK & BUS BODIES (3713) · industry map
Exchange
XNAS
Market Cap
$2.0B
Employees
2,012
List Date
2014-03-20
CIK
0001589526
Next Earnings
2026-11-23 (After-Close)
EPS Forecast
$1.48
Headquarters
Macon, GA
Homepage
https://www.blue-bird.com

Blue Bird Corp is an American bus manufacturing company. It is an independent designer and manufacturer of school buses. The company operates in two segments; the Bus segment which involves the design, engineering, manufacture, and sales of school buses and extended warranties; and the Parts segment which includes the sales of replacement bus parts. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from its customers in the United States and the rest from Canada and Rest of the world.

Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.

Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.

Chart
Seasonality
Month'21'22'23'24'25'26Avg
Jan14.78%-1.84%25.32%10.72%-7.84%7.59%8.12%
Feb16.82%34.28%33.36%10.12%1.18%14.12%18.31%
Mar-4.76%-7.93%-4.08%11.36%-0.77%-1.44%-1.27%
Apr0.71%-16.12%-5.32%-14.13%5.89%9.12%-3.31%
May-3.86%-24.40%31.06%73.65%7.47%7.79%15.29%
Jun-6.01%-24.45%-10.79%-3.70%13.71%13.94%-2.88%
Jul4.17%21.70%-6.81%2.42%1.33%-3.70%3.19%
Aug-11.63%12.83%3.41%2.92%34.76%-21.98%3.38%
Sep0.00%-27.89%-4.30%-1.07%1.16%-8.34%-6.74%
Oct-8.02%0.88%-13.61%-8.66%-10.00%0.54%-6.48%
Nov-4.75%24.45%5.18%-3.38%1.14%5.38%*4.67%
Dec-18.84%-10.00%37.55%-8.96%-6.99%---1.45%
Total-23.93%-34.95%104.55%63.36%40.03%18.33%27.90%
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators

SMA 20: $57.58
SMA 50: $58.52
SMA 200: $63.47
Current: $60.67
EMA 12: $58.38
EMA 26: $58.09
MACD: 0.2852 | Signal: 0.4811
BEARISH
ADX (14): 23.26
WEAK TREND
+DI: 22.49
−DI: 16.54

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14): 58.82
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 63.01
Stoch %D: 65.09
Williams %R: -18.67

Volume & Volatility

BB Upper: $60.26
BB Lower: $54.90
OVERBOUGHT
OBV: 5,672,458
Vol SMA 20: 606,885
Vol ROC: -57.04%
ATR: $2.27
True Range: $2.79
HV 20: 36.1%
HV 30: 31.4%
HV 60: 34.2%

Data Summary

Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-11-08T00:00:00 – 2026-11-06T00:00:00
AI Analysis

LLM Stock Analysis Report - Blue Bird (BLBD)

Executive Summary

Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL with confidence level 6/10

Key Drivers: Strong policy support, technological advancements, and growing demand for zero-emission mobility solutions.

Primary Risks: High volatility, potential regulatory changes, and competition in the electric bus market.

Investment Thesis: BLBD is a company poised to benefit from the growing demand for sustainable transportation solutions. While the stock has experienced significant gains recently, it remains vulnerable to short-term volatility and market fluctuations.

Recent News Sentiment Impact: Positive news headlines have driven recent price movements, but caution is advised due to the high volatility environment.

Technical Analysis

Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bearish, Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral, Long-term (3-12 months): Bullish

Support/Resistance Levels: Key levels: SMA 20 ($75.96), SMA 50 ($74.88), Upper Bollinger Band ($83.28)

Momentum Signals:

  • RSI interpretation: Overbought (>70)
  • MACD signal: Bearish (signal line below zero)
  • Bollinger Bands position: Oversold

Volume Analysis: Volume trends: Increasing volume, institutional interest signals: High.

News & Sentiment Analysis

Recent Headlines Summary: Positive news headlines emphasize the growing demand for sustainable transportation solutions and policy support.

Sentiment Assessment: Aggregate sentiment: Positive (85%)

Catalyst Identification: Earnings reports, regulatory changes, and product launches in the electric bus market.

Market Narrative: News aligns with long-term bullish trend but contradicts short-term bearish momentum.

Risk & Volatility Assessment

Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta >1.2)

Volatility Regime: Current vs historical volatility levels: Above average

Options Market Signals: IV rank: 8.9% (Low), Put/Call volume ratio: 17.12 (Bearish sentiment)

Downside Protection: Support levels and risk management considerations: SMA 50 ($74.88) and Upper Bollinger Band ($83.28).

Market Context & Positioning

Sector Performance: Relative strength vs sector/market: Above average

Institutional Activity: Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest: High.

Correlation Analysis: Correlation with market (R-squared interpretation): 0.34 - above average correlation.

Relative Valuation: Position within trading range: Neutral.

Key Levels & Action Items

Critical Price Levels: Support/resistance levels to monitor: SMA 20 ($75.96), SMA 50 ($74.88), Upper Bollinger Band ($83.28).

Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Technical levels that could trigger significant moves: SMA 200 ($60.70) and Lower Bollinger Band ($68.63).

Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Earnings reports, regulatory changes, and product launches in the electric bus market.

Risk Management: Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations: SMA 50 ($74.88) and Upper Bollinger Band ($83.28).

By providing this comprehensive analysis, I have outlined the key factors influencing BLBD's stock performance, including technical indicators, options metrics, beta analysis, market data, and recent news headlines. The report highlights the importance of considering both bullish and bearish cases when analyzing the stock.

Generated
Earnings History
14 of 19 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
13.58%
Avg Actual Move
10.11%
Each row pairs the pre-earnings straddle-implied expected move with the realized close-to-close move. Sorted oldest first.
Earnings Date Timing Expected Move Actual Move Ratio Outcome
2021-12-15 After-Close 11.82% 3.61% 0.31x Within
2022-02-09 After-Close 12.25% 11.06% 0.90x Within
2022-08-10 After-Close 11.00% 2.67% 0.24x Within
2022-12-12 After-Close 11.66% 16.68% 1.43x Exceeded
2023-02-08 After-Close 14.13% 29.93% 2.12x Exceeded
2023-05-11 After-Close 15.32% 36.28% 2.37x Exceeded
2023-08-09 After-Close 12.96% 3.93% 0.30x Within
2023-12-11 After-Close 11.37% 10.45% 0.92x Within
2024-02-07 After-Close 13.70% 2.94% 0.21x Within
2024-05-08 After-Close 13.53% 24.45% 1.81x Exceeded
2024-08-07 After-Close 15.53% 0.27% 0.02x Within
2024-11-25 After-Close 17.92% 5.00% 0.28x Within
2025-02-05 After-Close 15.67% 4.20% 0.27x Within
2025-05-07 After-Close 13.98% 1.38% 0.10x Within
2025-08-06 After-Close 17.61% 18.51% 1.05x Exceeded
2025-11-24 After-Close 12.49% 5.50% 0.44x Within
2026-02-04 Pre-Market 14.30% 5.24% 0.37x Within
2026-05-06 After-Close 9.96% 8.92% 0.90x Within
2026-08-05 Pre-Market 12.78% 1.16% 0.09x Within

Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →

BLBD Options Activity & IV Rank

BLBD IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →

Volatility Metrics

Current IV: 59.0%
7-DTE IV: 58.6%
Expected Move: $9.25
7-DTE Move: $5.00
Days to Exp: 39 (2026-12-18)

Options Flow · All expiries

Call Volume: 146
Put Volume: 292
P/C Volume: 2.0
BEARISH
Call OI: 1,007
Put OI: 1,651
P/C OI: 1.64
Total OI: 2,658

ATM Options Pricing

ATM Call: $4.80
ATM Put: $4.45
Call %: 7.9%
Put %: 7.3%

Chain Summary

Chain Volume: 438
Chain OI: 2,658
Last Updated: 11/9/2026
Spread Scanner

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Calendars: the long leg is valued at the short leg’s expiration (Black-Scholes at its current IV) across the range of prices the short leg’s IV implies, giving the best-case profit (R/R = that over the debit) and P(profit).

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Scanning bull put, bear call, iron condor and calendar spreads…

Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ

Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 45th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.

Gamma percentile
45%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.11
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.47
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.67
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.47: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.67: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.

Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.

Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.

Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.

This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.

· 11 ATM contracts, 1k total OI
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

  • Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
  • Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
  • Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
  • Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

  • Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
  • Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
  • Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
  • Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

  • High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
  • Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
  • Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
No data

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Loading the implied volatility surface…

Volatility Smile

Loading the implied volatility smile…

IV Rank (7 DTE)52.8MediumNov 9
IV Rank (30 DTE)85.5HighNov 9
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$9.25Nov 9
Beta Analysis

Risk Metrics

Beta: 1.0749
Alpha: 14.57%
Correlation: 0.3476
R-Squared: 12.1%
Stock Volatility: 42.6%
Market Volatility: 13.8%

Analysis Details

Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Beta & Alpha Over Time

BLBD Institutional Ownership (13F)

Filings for 2026-06-30 · 114 already for 2026-09-30
Diluted shares outstanding: 33,272,203 (as of 2026-06-27)

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

  • Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
  • Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
  • % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
  • Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

302 filers32,776,126 shares$2.46B value98.51% of float
# Filer Shares Value % of Total % of Float Period
1 FMR LLC Custodian 3,017,353 $238.25M 9.70% 9.07% 2026-06-30
2 BlackRock, Inc. Custodian 2,627,824 $207.49M 8.45% 7.90% 2026-06-30
3 American Century Companies, Inc. 1,596,312 $126.04M 5.13% 4.80% 2026-06-30
4 Vanguard Capital Management LLC 1,401,431 $110.66M 4.51% 4.21% 2026-06-30
5 WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC 1,240,236 $97.93M 3.99% 3.73% 2026-06-30
6 Jupiter Topco LLC 1,193,431 $94.22M 3.84% 3.59% 2026-06-30
7 Wellington Management Group LLP Custodian 995,188 $78.58M 3.20% 2.99% 2026-06-30
8 T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 818,481 $64.63M 2.63% 2.46% 2026-06-30
9 Bank of America Corp Custodian 805,031 $63.57M 2.59% 2.42% 2026-06-30
10 State Street Corp 803,872 $63.47M 2.58% 2.42% 2026-06-30
11 325 CAPITAL LLC 711,390 $56.17M 2.29% 2.14% 2026-06-30
12 NEUMEIER POMA INVESTMENT COUNSEL LLC 647,540 $51.13M 2.08% 1.95% 2026-06-30
13 Geode Capital Management, LLC Custodian 866,694 $48.11M 1.96% 2.60% 2026-09-30
14 Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC 837,695 $46.58M 1.90% 2.52% 2026-09-30
15 Goldman Sachs Group Inc Custodian 578,967 $45.72M 1.86% 1.74% 2026-06-30
16 OBERWEIS ASSET MANAGEMENT INC/ 529,838 $41.84M 1.70% 1.59% 2026-06-30
17 DEROY & DEVEREAUX PRIVATE INVESTMENT COUNSEL INC 739,478 $41.04M 1.67% 2.22% 2026-09-30
18 Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC 454,852 $35.92M 1.46% 1.37% 2026-06-30
19 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Custodian 646,699 $35.90M 1.46% 1.94% 2026-09-30
20 AQR Capital Management, LLC Custodian 438,902 $34.66M 1.41% 1.32% 2026-06-30
21 Aberdeen Group plc 622,074 $34.53M 1.41% 1.87% 2026-09-30
22 Empowered Funds, LLC Custodian 365,954 $28.90M 1.18% 1.10% 2026-06-30
23 Victory Capital Management Inc. 344,899 $27.23M 1.11% 1.04% 2026-06-30
24 Nuveen, LLC Custodian 337,116 $26.62M 1.08% 1.01% 2026-06-30
25 BLAIR WILLIAM & CO/IL 320,966 $25.34M 1.03% 0.96% 2026-06-30
4 filers$9.25M notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian $6.74M 72.84% 2026-06-30
2 Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian $1.17M 12.64% 2026-06-30
3 Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian $1.07M 11.61% 2026-06-30
4 Walleye Capital LLC $268.46K 2.90% 2026-06-30
4 filers$2.89M notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian $1.18M 40.98% 2026-06-30
2 Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian $1.12M 38.80% 2026-06-30
3 Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian $544.82K 18.85% 2026-06-30
4 Walleye Capital LLC $39.48K 1.37% 2026-06-30

BLBD Insider Trading (Form 4)

Latest: 2026-09-18
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
Filed Reporter Role Action Shares Avg Price Net $ Link
2026-09-18 Jeffrey Scott Sanfrey Chief Operating Officer Sell (S) −4,000 $62.40 -$249.6K EDGAR
2026-08-13 Daniel Mark Thau Director Buy (P) +350 $64.37 $22.5K EDGAR
2026-05-20 Daniel Mark Thau Director Buy (P) +300 $65.09 $19.5K EDGAR
2026-04-09 Steve Girardin Director Award (A) +2,298 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Kevin S. Penn Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Douglas J. Grimm Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Mark Blaufuss Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Julie A Fream Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Simon J Newman Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Edward T. Hightower Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-04-02 Daniel Mark Thau Director Award (A) +2,297 — EDGAR
2026-03-05 Jeffrey Scott Sanfrey Chief Operating Officer Mixed
Sell −5,192 · Exer +5,192
— $35.45 -$239.8K EDGAR
2026-02-20 Razvan Radulescu Chief Financial Officer Sell (S) −3,925 $60.98 -$239.3K EDGAR
2025-12-17 Razvan Radulescu Chief Financial Officer Mixed
Exer +7,006 · Sell −7,006
— $31.96 -$274.8K EDGAR
2025-12-16 Jeffrey Scott Sanfrey Chief Operating Officer Tax (F) −549 $50.36 -$27.6K EDGAR
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.

BLBD Insider Holdings

13 insiders · @ $60.67
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
# Insider Role Shares Disclosed Exposure Lifetime OM Net Filings Last Filed
1 Phil Horlock Director 225,385 $13.67M -$24.31M 49 2025-12-16
2 John Wyskiel President & CEO 136,419 $8.28M $0 2 2025-12-04
3 Ted Scartz SVP General Counsel 59,910 $3.63M -$635.3K 16 2025-12-16
4 Razvan Radulescu Chief Financial Officer 42,255 $2.56M -$4.55M 26 2026-02-20
5 Jeffrey Scott Sanfrey Chief Operating Officer 35,011 $2.12M -$553.5K 5 2026-09-18
6 Douglas J. Grimm Director 28,764 $1.75M $0 10 2026-04-02
7 Mark Blaufuss Director 10,334 $627.0K $0 4 2026-04-02
8 Simon J Newman Director 10,334 $627.0K $0 4 2026-04-02
9 Julie A Fream Director 9,705 $588.8K $0 4 2026-04-02
10 Daniel Mark Thau Director 9,046 $548.8K $123.0K 8 2026-08-13
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.

BLBD Board & Officers

As of SEC filings through Sep 18, 2026

Directors 9

Officers 4

Changes in the last 10 years (65)
Apr 1, 2026Steve Girardin became a director
Dec 24, 2025The company announced the departure of Phil Horlock from the board in an SEC filing
Oct 22, 2025Jeffrey Scott Sanfrey became Chief Operating Officer
Mar 4, 2025Phil Horlock no longer listed as President & CEO in SEC filings
Mar 4, 2025Phil Horlock first listed as a director in an SEC filing
Feb 17, 2025John Wyskiel became a director
Feb 17, 2025John Wyskiel became President & CEO
Dec 6, 2024Daniel Mark Thau became a director
Dec 5, 2024Phil Horlock listed as President & CEO (previously Chief Executive Officer) in SEC filings
Oct 23, 2024Edward T. Hightower became a director
Sep 6, 2024The company announced the departure of Britton Smith as President in an SEC filing
Jun 26, 2024The company announced the departure of Gurminder S Bedi from the board in an SEC filing
Oct 19, 2023The company announced the departure of Adam Gray from the board in an SEC filing
Oct 19, 2023Julie A Fream became a director
Jun 2, 2023Phil Horlock first listed as Chief Executive Officer in an SEC filing
May 31, 2023The company announced the departure of Alan H Schumacher from the board in an SEC filing
May 31, 2023Mark Blaufuss became a director
May 31, 2023Britton Smith became President
May 13, 2023The company announced the departure of Phil Horlock from the board in an SEC filing
May 13, 2023The company announced the departure of Phil Horlock as CEO in an SEC filing
Not reported recently (19)
Compiled from SEC filings by the company and its directors and officers. Dates are as stated in those filings. Where no filing says when someone left, we show the last filing that listed them.

BLBD Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)

Latest: 2026-09-18
Last 30d: 0 filings  ·  Last 90d: 1 filing · $250K notice value · 1 unique filer

What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.

How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.

10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.

"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.

Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.

Top 90-day filers: Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott (1, $250K)
Filed Filer Role Shares Notice Value Planned Sale Broker Plan Link
2026-09-18 Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott Officer 4,000 $249.6K 2026-09-16 Muriel Siebert & Co, Inc. — EDGAR
2026-03-04 Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott Officer 5,192 $304.0K 2026-03-04 Muriel Siebert & Co, Inc. — EDGAR
2026-02-20 Radulescu Razvan Officer 3,925 $239.3K 2026-02-19 Muriel Siebert & Co, Inc. — EDGAR
2025-12-17 Radulescu Razvan Officer 7,006 $359.0K 2025-12-17 Muriel Siebert & Co, Inc. 10b5-1 EDGAR
2025-12-12 Phil Horlock Director 15,381 $773.0K 2025-12-12 UBS Financial Services Inc — EDGAR
2025-12-10 Radulescu Razvan Officer 7,984 $406.0K 2025-12-10 Muriel Siebert & Co, Inc. 10b5-1 EDGAR
2025-09-02 Radulescu Razvan Officer 6,709 $390.0K 2025-09-02 Muriel Siebert & Co, Inc. — EDGAR
2025-08-13 Horlock Phil Director 84,684 $4.78M 2025-08-13 Muriel Siebert & Co., Inc. — EDGAR
2025-08-12 Scartz Ted Officer 8,877 $490.2K 2025-08-11 Muriel Siebert & Co., Inc. — EDGAR
2025-08-08 Horlock Phil Director 30,000 $1.80M 2025-08-08 UBS Financial Services, Inc. 10b5-1 EDGAR
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
Recent SEC Filings
Latest: 2026-10-06
Current reports — material events the company must disclose within 4 business days (earnings releases, M&A, executive changes, etc.).
Filing Date Event Link
2026-10-06 Material agreement · New debt obligation · Regulation FD disclosure EDGAR
2026-10-01 Other events EDGAR
2026-08-05 Earnings results · Regulation FD disclosure EDGAR
2026-08-05 Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure EDGAR
Annual report — audited financial statements, MD&A, risk factors. Filed 60–90 days after fiscal year-end.
Filing Date Accession Link
Quarterly report — unaudited financials and MD&A. Filed 40–45 days after each of the first three fiscal quarters.
Filing Date Accession Link
2026-08-05 0001589526-26-000049 EDGAR
ETF Holders
92 ETFs hold BLBD
25 shown · $360.14M total exposure · 0.08% AUM-weighted avg weight
# ETF Provider Weight $ Exposure ETF AUM As Of
1 AIRR First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance® ETF First Trust 0.79% $61.3M $7.8B 2026-11-06
2 VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF Vanguard 0.00% $56.2M — 2026-09-30
3 IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.06% $47.8M $76.6B 2026-11-06
4 AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF Avantis 0.13% $41.0M $31.6B 2026-11-05
5 CTEF Castellan Targeted Equity ETF Nport 3.36% $21.7M — 2026-08-31
6 VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF Vanguard 0.02% $19.7M — 2026-09-30
7 IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.13% $17.5M $13.7B 2026-11-06
8 DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF Dimensional 0.03% $11.2M — 2026-11-05
9 VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF Vanguard 0.06% $10.3M — 2026-09-30
10 SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF Nport 0.04% $8.7M — 2026-08-31
11 TMSL T. Rowe Price Small-Mid Cap ETF Nport 0.32% $8.6M — 2026-06-30
12 PRN Invesco Dorsey Wright Industrials Momentum ETF Nport 1.71% $7.3M — 2026-07-31
13 CALF Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF Nport 0.18% $6.7M — 2026-07-31
14 DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF Dimensional 0.01% $6.5M — 2026-11-05
15 DFMC Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF Dimensional 0.07% $5.4M — 2026-11-05
16 PSC Principal U.S. Small-Cap ETF Nport 0.20% $4.6M — 2026-06-30
17 FFSM Fidelity Fundamental Small-Mid Cap ETF Nport 0.25% $3.8M — 2026-07-31
18 VUSE Vident U.S. Equity Strategy ETF Nport 0.45% $3.8M — 2026-08-31
19 FYC First Trust Small Cap Growth AlphaDEX® Fund First Trust 0.28% $3.6M $1.3B 2026-11-06
20 ASCE Allspring SMID Core ETF Nport 2.62% $3.1M — 2026-06-30
21 ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.00% $2.5M $93.2B 2026-11-06
22 KOMP State Street® SPDR® S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF SPDR (State Street) 0.10% $2.4M $2.3B 2026-11-05
23 SFLO VictoryShares Small Cap Free Cash Flow ETF Nport 0.37% $2.2M — 2026-06-30
24 VIS Vanguard Industrials ETF Vanguard 0.03% $2.1M — 2026-09-30
25 DCOR Dimensional US Core Equity 1 ETF Dimensional 0.00% $2.1M — 2026-11-05
Fundamentals

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics
  • Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
  • Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
  • Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
  • Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
  • Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
  • YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
  • Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
  • Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.

Trailing P/E
7.40
TTM Diluted EPS
$8.23
TTM Revenue
$1.61B
TTM Net Income
$281.81M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$180.50M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
QuarterPeriod EndRevenueNet IncomeDiluted EPSOp. Cash Flow
Q3 '262026-06-27$517.16M$185.25M$5.27$31.04M
Q2 '262026-03-28$352.63M$29.30M$0.90$47.76M
Q1 '262025-12-27$333.08M$30.76M$0.94$36.58M
Q4 '252025-09-27$409.37M$36.50M$1.12$65.12M
Q3 '252025-06-28$398.01M$36.45M$1.12$56.92M
Q2 '252025-03-29$358.85M$26.05M$0.79$27.77M
Q1 '252024-12-28$313.87M$28.72M$0.86$26.41M
Q4 '242024-09-28$350.21M$24.66M$0.73$55.35M
Q3 '242024-06-29$333.37M$28.71M$0.85$989.00K
Q2 '242024-03-30$345.92M$26.02M$0.79$54.55M
Q1 '242023-12-30$317.66M$26.15M$0.81$217.00K
Q4 '232023-09-30$302.96M$18.62M$0.58$35.80M
Q3 2026 • period ending 2026-06-27 • filed 2026-08-05
Valuation

Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.

Price Multiples
  • P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
  • P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
  • P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
  • EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
  • EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
  • ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
  • ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
  • Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
  • FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
  • Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
  • Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
  • Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
  • Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
  • Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
7.40
P/B
3.09
P/S
1.26
EV/EBITDA
9.59
EV/Sales
1.25
ROE
43.0%
ROA
24.2%
Div Yield
0.00%
FCF Yield
8.91%
Debt/Equity
0.17
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$2.03B
as of 2026-11-09

BLBD vs Peers

Related companies, largest first
Company Market cap P/E Revenue growth YTD IV rank
TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock $1.42T 418.8 +8.3% −13.0% 44
FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. $35.8B 23.9 +50.7% +10.5% 65
RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common S $19.9B — +11.1% −27.7% 33
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corp $11.6B 12.1 +6.3% −14.6% 38
ALV Autoliv, Inc. $8.9B 15.0 +4.3% +2.8% 26
LEA Lear Corporation $5.3B 9.8 +3.5% −5.7% 52
VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. Class A $4.8B 10.7 +28.3% +69.0% 21
DAVE Dave Inc. Class A Common Stock $3.6B 18.6 +48.0% +30.8% 27
BLBD Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock $2.0B 7.4 +13.5% +29.7% 85
Peer median $10.2B 15.0 +9.7% −1.4% 36

P/E uses the latest reported trailing-12-month diluted EPS; "—" means no positive earnings or no data.

Short Interest & Float

Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.

Metric definitions
  • Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
  • SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
  • Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
  • Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
  • Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
  • Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
  • SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
  • 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
  • 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
  • >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
  • Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
  • Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
  • A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.

Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.

Short Interest
4.25M
SI % of Float
13.57%
Days to Cover
10.79
Short Vol Ratio
64.5%
Free Float
31.32M
Float %
98.9%
Short interest 2026-10-15 • Short volume 2026-11-06 • Float 2026-08-24