GEO The GEO Group, Inc.
XNYS
29.53
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
What changed
Recent filings, trades and moves- 52-Week Range
- $12.51 – $33.17
- YTD
- +85.39%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 24.33
- Straddle Price
- $3.75
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.26
- Market Cap
- $3.7B
- Open
- $28.45
- Day Range
- $28.36 – $29.75
- Volume
- 1,475,874
- Prev Close
- $27.80
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.90% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.87 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.27% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 7.99% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +10.4pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 26.9% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +10.9% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.0B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 19.2% |
| Book / Price | 40.1% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 1.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.06 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $30.03 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $28.37 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 22.3% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $1.5B |
| Market Cap | $4B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $-5.15 | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $39.80 | 15% | median 18.4× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $29.05 | 15% | median 10.7× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/B | $27.78 | 3% | median 2.5× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/S | $32.61 | 10% | median 1.5× · 6 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $30.03 | 25% | stability 39% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $27.83 | 33% | 30 strikes · skew +0.25 |

- Industry (SIC)
- GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS (1520) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $3.7B
- Employees
- 18,000
- List Date
- 1994-07-26
- CIK
- 0000923796
- Last Earnings
- Nov 5 before open · −8.6% vs ±12.7% expected
- Next Earnings
- ~Feb 11, 2027 (estimated)
- Headquarters
- Boca Raton, FL
- Homepage
- https://www.geogroup.com
The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential an…
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2.17% | -14.27% | 7.28% | 3.35% | 11.38% | 0.31% | 1.70% |
| Feb | -19.91% | -13.12% | -24.87% | 7.16% | -11.66% | -5.05% | -11.24% |
| Mar | 3.19% | 14.76% | -13.01% | 16.79% | 11.36% | 9.94% | 7.17% |
| Apr | -28.35% | -1.66% | -5.52% | 4.21% | 4.51% | 6.81% | -3.33% |
| May | -9.42% | 6.12% | -1.58% | -1.36% | -13.95% | 20.91% | 0.12% |
| Jun | 30.40% | -7.69% | -3.24% | -4.07% | -11.56% | 26.61% | 5.07% |
| Jul | -4.42% | -2.38% | 2.61% | -3.53% | 5.84% | 1.71% | -0.03% |
| Aug | 12.32% | 25.08% | -2.56% | 0.73% | -17.04% | 1.50% | 3.34% |
| Sep | -4.84% | -9.31% | 10.39% | -2.73% | -2.34% | -0.20% | -1.50% |
| Oct | 10.39% | 3.68% | 1.63% | 18.32% | -21.51% | -7.37% | 0.86% |
| Nov | 1.45% | 40.38% | 13.28% | 97.30% | -6.25% | 6.56%* | 25.45% |
| Dec | -4.32% | -9.88% | 5.66% | 3.17% | -0.06% | -- | -1.09% |
| Total | -21.77% | 19.60% | -15.30% | 190.36% | -45.04% | 74.12% | 33.66% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
SYMBOL: GEO
Executive Summary:
Overall assessment: BEARISH (confidence level: 6/10)
Key drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, with RSI indicating a potentially oversold market.
- Recent news headlines have been primarily negative, driving the stock price lower.
Primary risks:
- The company's Q1 earnings miss and guidance below street estimates may continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
- High levels of debt and rising costs could further exacerbate the bearish trend.
Investment thesis: GEO's recent performance has been marked by a decline in its stock price, driven primarily by negative news headlines and technical indicators. While the company's earnings miss and guidance below street estimates may continue to pressure the stock, the options market is pricing in a relatively low volatility environment, which could provide some support for the stock.
Recent news sentiment impact: The recent news headlines have had a bearish impact on the stock price, with three out of five articles having negative sentiment. This has contributed to a decline in investor confidence and a downward trend in the stock's price.
Technical Analysis:
Trend direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): NEUTRAL
- Medium-term (1-3 months): BEARISH
- Long-term (3-12 months): NEUTRAL
Support/resistance levels:
- SMA 20: $31.51
- SMA 50: $30.82
- SMA 200: $21.56
- Upper Bollinger Band: $33.02
Momentum signals:
- RSI interpretation: NEUTRAL (54.14)
- MACD signal: BULLISH
- Bollinger Bands position: SQUEEZE
Volume analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 2296367.97
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -21491561.01
- Volume Rate of Change: -48.24%
News & Sentiment Analysis:
Recent headlines summary:
- Three out of five recent news articles have had negative sentiment, contributing to a bearish trend in the stock's price.
Sentiment assessment: NEGATIVE
Catalyst identification: None
Market narrative: The recent news headlines have had a bearish impact on the stock price, driven by negative earnings and guidance. This has contributed to a decline in investor confidence and a downward trend in the stock's price.
Risk & Volatility Assessment:
Beta interpretation: MODERATE (0.90)
Volatility regime: MODERATE
Options market signals:
- IV rank: LOW (0.0%)
- Put/call ratios: 0.66 (Bullish sentiment)
- Unusual activity: None
Downside protection: SMA 200 at $21.56 provides a potential support level.
Market Context & Positioning:
Sector performance: GEO's sector is down -4.2% in the last 10 days, contributing to its decline.
Institutional activity:
- Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest: None
Correlation analysis: GEO has a moderate correlation with the market (R-squared interpretation).
Relative valuation: GEO is trading at a premium relative to its historical range.
Key Levels & Action Items:
Critical price levels:
- SMA 20: $31.51
- SMA 50: $30.82
Breakout/breakdown levels:
- Upper Bollinger Band: $33.02
- Lower Bollinger Band: $29.99
Time-sensitive catalysts: None
Risk management: Consider setting a stop-loss at SMA 200 ($21.56) to limit potential losses.
Please note that this analysis is based on the provided data and may not reflect actual market conditions or future performance of the stock.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-22 | Pre-Market | 13.70% | 1.23% | 0.09x | Within |
| 2021-04-13 | Pre-Market | 5.15% | 2.23% | 0.43x | Within |
| 2021-08-10 | Pre-Market | 8.47% | 0.13% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2021-11-10 | Pre-Market | 8.34% | 2.03% | 0.24x | Within |
| 2022-01-06 | Pre-Market | 7.72% | 0.64% | 0.08x | Within |
| 2022-02-24 | Pre-Market | 11.24% | 0.99% | 0.09x | Within |
| 2022-05-09 | Pre-Market | 9.54% | 3.41% | 0.36x | Within |
| 2022-08-08 | Pre-Market | 7.88% | 0.29% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2022-11-02 | Pre-Market | 9.50% | 1.43% | 0.15x | Within |
| 2023-05-01 | Pre-Market | 10.23% | 0.66% | 0.06x | Within |
| 2023-08-15 | Pre-Market | 6.80% | 0.95% | 0.14x | Within |
| 2023-11-13 | Pre-Market | 5.89% | 0.43% | 0.07x | Within |
| 2024-02-22 | Pre-Market | 3.36% | 0.67% | 0.20x | Within |
| 2024-05-13 | Pre-Market | 3.93% | 2.97% | 0.76x | Within |
| 2024-08-12 | Pre-Market | 5.93% | 3.85% | 0.65x | Within |
| 2024-11-13 | Pre-Market | 5.19% | 1.68% | 0.32x | Within |
| 2025-02-27 | After-Close | 3.93% | 0.07% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2025-05-07 | Pre-Market | 7.41% | 10.04% | 1.35x | Exceeded |
| 2025-08-06 | Pre-Market | 10.84% | 11.46% | 1.06x | Exceeded |
| 2025-11-06 | Pre-Market | 7.88% | 8.33% | 1.06x | Exceeded |
| 2026-02-12 | Pre-Market | 10.90% | 14.91% | 1.37x | Exceeded |
| 2026-05-06 | After-Close | 7.09% | 4.41% | 0.62x | Within |
| 2026-08-06 | Pre-Market | 12.41% | 4.07% | 0.33x | Within |
| 2026-11-05 | Pre-Market | 12.71% | 8.57% | 0.67x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
GEO Options Activity & IV Rank
GEO IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Options Flow · All expiries
ATM Options Pricing
Chain Summary
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Calendars: the long leg is valued at the short leg’s expiration (Black-Scholes at its current IV) across the range of prices the short leg’s IV implies, giving the best-case profit (R/R = that over the debit) and P(profit).
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Scanning bull put, bear call, iron condor and calendar spreads…
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 84th percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Loading the implied volatility surface…
Loading the implied volatility smile…
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Moderate volatility - stock generally follows market
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $27.2M | #982 of 6285 | -48.2% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $1.4M | #2779 of 3716 | -47.8% | 13F | |
| Bridgewater Associates Hedge fund Ray Dalio | $969K | #843 of 997 | -59.2% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $2K | #4397 of 4729 | -50.6% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
GEO Institutional Ownership (13F)
Filings for 2026-06-30 · 117 already for 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $61.12M | 23.18% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | COOPER CREEK PARTNERS MANAGEMENT LLC | $44.33M | 16.81% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Caption Management, LLC | $31.17M | 11.82% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $28.75M | 10.90% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $21.51M | 8.16% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $20.73M | 7.86% | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $19.20M | 7.28% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $15.12M | 5.73% | 2026-09-30 |
| 9 | Windward Management LP | $7.39M | 2.80% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $4.62M | 1.75% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Walleye Trading LLC | $4.44M | 1.68% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $1.81M | 0.69% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $1.25M | 0.47% | 2026-06-30 |
| 14 | Balyasny Asset Management L.P. | $1.23M | 0.47% | 2026-06-30 |
| 15 | PEAK6 LLC | $523.03K | 0.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | KCM Capital Inc | $375.00K | 0.14% | 2026-06-30 |
| 17 | Philosophy Capital Management LLC | $132.97K | 0.05% | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | T3 Companies, LLC | $16.75K | <0.01% | 2026-09-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $31.62M | 40.03% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $10.28M | 13.01% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $10.11M | 12.79% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $7.04M | 8.91% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $4.70M | 5.95% | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $3.77M | 4.77% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $3.57M | 4.52% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $2.25M | 2.85% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Walleye Trading LLC | $1.89M | 2.39% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | PEAK6 LLC | $1.76M | 2.23% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $1.08M | 1.36% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $920.19K | 1.16% | 2026-09-30 |
| 13 | WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $15.23K | 0.02% | 2026-09-30 |
GEO Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-15| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Matthew Albence | Senior VP, Client Relations | Sell (S) | −11,797 | $31.45 | -$371.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-25 | Ronald A. Brack | See Remarks | Sell (S) | −7,000 | $32.00 | -$224.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-24 | Matthew Albence | Senior VP, Client Relations | Sell (S) | −10,000 | $31.69 | -$316.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-17 | Lindsay L. Koren | Director | Sell (S) | −3,500 | $31.30 | -$109.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-18 | George C Zoley | See Remarks | Gift (G) | −300,000 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-02 | Mark Suchinski | Disp (D) | −139,667 | — | EDGAR | ||
| 2026-04-02 | Shayn P. March | See Remarks | Award (A) | +12,175 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-19 | Ronald A. Brack | See Remarks | Award (A) | +14,515 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-19 | Nicole Mannarino | Chief Compliance Officer | Award (A) | +657 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-19 | Shayn P. March | See Remarks | Award (A) | +19,566 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-10 | Thomas C. Bartzokis | Director | Award (A) | +10,246 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-10 | Jack Brewer | Director | Award (A) | +10,246 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-10 | Christopher D. Ryan | See Remarks | Mixed Grant +18,461 · Tax −15,449 |
+3,012 | $14.35 | -$221.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-10 | Daniel H. Ragsdale | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −812 | $14.35 | -$11.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-10 | Donald E. Houston | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −812 | $14.35 | -$11.7K | EDGAR |
GEO Insider Holdings
24 insiders · @ $29.74| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George C Zoley | See Remarks | 3,802,529 | $113.09M | -$9.60M | 83 | 2026-06-18 |
| 2 | Richard Kent Long | See Remarks | 318,353 | $9.47M | $0 | 15 | 2026-03-10 |
| 3 | Joe Negron | SVP, General Counsel & Sec. | 301,038 | $8.95M | $0 | 11 | 2025-03-11 |
| 4 | Wayne H Calabrese | Pres. and Chief Op Officer | 224,449 | $6.68M | -$18.05M | 22 | 2025-03-11 |
| 5 | Christopher D. Ryan | See Remarks | 102,319 | $3.04M | $0 | 6 | 2026-03-10 |
| 6 | Matthew Albence | Senior VP, Client Relations | 87,601 | $2.61M | -$687.9K | 9 | 2026-09-15 |
| 7 | Shayn P. March | See Remarks | 73,691 | $2.19M | -$1.20M | 39 | 2026-04-02 |
| 8 | Paul M. Laird | See Remarks | 62,355 | $1.85M | $0 | 4 | 2026-03-10 |
| 9 | Scott A. Schipma | See Remarks | 61,328 | $1.82M | $0 | 3 | 2026-03-05 |
| 10 | David O. Meehan | See Remarks | 57,947 | $1.72M | $0 | 3 | 2026-03-05 |
GEO Board & Officers
As of SEC filings through Sep 15, 2026Directors 7
- George C Zoley · on file since 2006
- Julie Myers Wood · since Jul 2, 2014
- Scott Michael Kernan · since Sep 10, 2018
- Jack Brewer · since Jul 9, 2021
- Thomas C. Bartzokis · since Jan 21, 2022
- Lindsay L. Koren · since Dec 27, 2022
- Donna Arduin · since Jun 12, 2024
Officers 12
- George C Zoley · Chairman & Chief Executive Officer · listed since Mar 2026
- David O. Meehan · Senior Vice President, GEO Care · since Feb 19, 2025
- Christopher D. Ryan · Senior Vice President, Human Resources · listed since Mar 2026
- Daniel H. Ragsdale · Senior Vice President, Contract Administration & Compliance · listed since Mar 2026
- Scott A. Schipma · Senior Vice President, General Counsel · listed since Mar 2026
- Nicole Mannarino · Chief Compliance Officer · since Nov 12, 2024
- Ronald A. Brack · EVP, CAO and Controller · listed since Mar 2021
- Shayn P. March · EVP of Finance and Treasurer · listed since Jul 2024
- Richard Kent Long · SVP-Project Development · since Oct 2, 2017
- Matthew Albence · Senior VP, Client Relations · since Sep 1, 2022
- Donald E. Houston · SVP, Health Services · since Jun 3, 2024
- Paul M. Laird · SVP, Secure Services · since Jan 1, 2025
Changes in the last 10 years (48)
| Apr 2, 2026 | Mark Suchinski reported in an SEC filing no longer being CFO |
| Mar 5, 2026 | George C Zoley listed as Chairman & Chief Executive Officer (previously Executive Chairman) in SEC filings |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Scott A. Schipma listed as Senior Vice President, General Counsel (previously Executive Vice President, General Counsel) in SEC filings |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Daniel H. Ragsdale listed as Senior Vice President, Contract Administration & Compliance (previously SVP, Contract Admin & Compl.) in SEC filings |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Christopher D. Ryan listed as Senior Vice President, Human Resources (previously Senior VP, Human Resources) in SEC filings |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Scott A. Schipma became Executive Vice President, General Counsel |
| Feb 6, 2026 | The company announced the departure of J David Donahue as Chief Executive Officer in an SEC filing |
| Feb 19, 2025 | David O. Meehan became Senior Vice President, GEO Care |
| Jan 13, 2025 | J David Donahue listed as Chief Executive Officer (previously SVP-Corrections & Detention) in SEC filings |
| Jan 6, 2025 | The company announced the departure of Andrew N Shapiro from the board in an SEC filing |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Paul M. Laird became SVP, Secure Services |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Daniel H. Ragsdale became SVP, Contract Admin & Compl. |
| Dec 11, 2024 | The company announced the departure of Brian Evans as Chief Executive Officer in an SEC filing |
| Nov 12, 2024 | Nicole Mannarino became Chief Compliance Officer |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Shayn P. March listed as EVP of Finance and Treasurer (previously EVP, Acting CFO & Treasurer) in SEC filings |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Mark Suchinski became CFO |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Donna Arduin became a director |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Donald E. Houston became SVP, Health Services |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Wayne H Calabrese listed as Pres, Chief Operating Officer (previously President and COO) in SEC filings |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Brian Evans listed as Chief Executive Officer (previously SVP, Chief Financial Officer) in SEC filings |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Shayn P. March listed as EVP, Acting CFO & Treasurer (previously VP of Finance and Treasurer) in SEC filings |
| Nov 29, 2023 | The company announced the departure of Jose Gordo as Chief Executive Officer in an SEC filing |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Joe Negron listed as SVP, General Counsel & Sec. (previously General Counsel & Corp Sec.) in SEC filings |
| Feb 10, 2023 | Christopher D. Ryan became Senior VP, Human Resources |
| Feb 9, 2023 | The company announced the departure of Wayne H Calabrese from the board in an SEC filing |
| Dec 27, 2022 | Lindsay L. Koren became a director |
| Dec 21, 2022 | The company announced the departure of Anne N Foreman from the board in an SEC filing |
| Sep 1, 2022 | Matthew Albence became Senior VP, Client Relations |
| Jul 18, 2022 | The company announced the departure of David J Venturella as SVP-Client Relations in an SEC filing |
| Mar 3, 2022 | Joe Negron listed as General Counsel & Corp Sec. (previously SVP & General Counsel) in SEC filings |
| Mar 3, 2022 | George C Zoley listed as Executive Chairman (previously Chairman & CEO) in SEC filings |
| Mar 3, 2022 | David J Venturella listed as SVP-Client Relations (previously SVP-Business Development) in SEC filings |
| Feb 14, 2022 | Andrew N Shapiro became a director |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Thomas C. Bartzokis became a director |
| Jul 21, 2021 | Jose Gordo first listed as Chief Executive Officer in an SEC filing |
| Jul 9, 2021 | Terry P. Mayotte became a director |
| Jul 9, 2021 | Jack Brewer became a director |
| May 18, 2021 | Blake Davis reported in an SEC filing no longer being Pres. GEO Secure Services |
| May 15, 2021 | James H. Black became SVP & Pres, Secure Services |
| Mar 3, 2021 | Ronald A. Brack listed as EVP, CAO and Controller (previously VP, CAO and Controller) in SEC filings |
| Jul 9, 2020 | Duane Helkowski became a director |
| Apr 10, 2020 | Blake Davis became Pres. GEO Secure Services |
| Oct 9, 2019 | Jose Gordo became a director |
| Jan 1, 2019 | Joe Negron became SVP & General Counsel |
| Sep 10, 2018 | Scott Michael Kernan became a director |
| Jul 6, 2018 | Guido Van Hauwermeiren became a director |
| Oct 2, 2017 | Richard Kent Long became SVP-Project Development |
| Feb 28, 2017 | Norman A Carlson reported in an SEC filing no longer being a director |
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Not reported recently (13)
- Wayne H Calabrese · Last reported as Pres, Chief Operating Officer in an SEC filing dated Mar 11, 2025
- Joe Negron · Last reported as SVP, General Counsel & Sec. in an SEC filing dated Mar 11, 2025
- Terry P. Mayotte · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Mar 5, 2025
- James H. Black · Last reported as SVP & Pres, Secure Services in an SEC filing dated Jan 3, 2025
- Jose Gordo · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Apr 28, 2023
- Ann M Schlarb · Last reported as SVP,GEO & Pres, GEO Care in an SEC filing dated Mar 10, 2022
- Richard H Glanton · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Mar 3, 2022
- Christopher C. Wheeler · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Mar 3, 2022
- Guido Van Hauwermeiren · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Mar 22, 2021
- Duane Helkowski · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Mar 22, 2021
- John J Bulfin · Last reported as SVP & General Counsel in an SEC filing dated May 8, 2018
- Clarence E Anthony · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Apr 26, 2018
- Thomas M Wierdsma · Last reported as SVP - Project Development in an SEC filing dated Mar 5, 2018
GEO Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-09-11What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Albence Matthew | Officer | 11,797 | $370.9K | 2026-09-11 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-21 | Brack Ronald A. | Officer | 7,000 | $224.0K | 2026-08-21 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-20 | Albence Matthew | Officer | 10,000 | $316.7K | 2026-08-20 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-13 | Koren Lindsay L. | Director | 3,500 | $109.6K | 2026-08-13 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-04 | KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL | Director | 6,633 | $101.1K | 2026-03-04 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-04 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Officer | 155,881 | $3.27M | 2025-09-04 | Merrill Lynch | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-21 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Officer | 230,850 | $4.85M | 2025-08-18 | Merrill Lynch | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-27 | March Shayn P. | Officer | 7,500 | $225.0K | 2025-03-27 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-13 | Mannarino Nicole | Officer | 646 | $16.4K | 2025-03-13 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-10 | KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL | Director | 5,800 | $131.5K | 2025-03-10 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Event | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Earnings results | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-08 | Material agreement · New debt obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-05 | Material agreement · Acquisition or sale completed · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-06 | Earnings results | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.21% | $217.3M | $103.8B | 2026-11-06 |
| 2 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $123.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.12% | $92.5M | $76.6B | 2026-11-06 |
| 4 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $85.8M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 5 | VBR Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.09% | $55.8M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $44.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.24% | $33.8M | $13.9B | 2026-11-06 |
| 8 | SPSM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600™ Small Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.19% | $30.0M | $15.7B | 2026-11-05 |
| 9 | IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.40% | $29.9M | $7.5B | 2026-11-06 |
| 10 | FNDA Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company ETF | Nport | 0.26% | $23.6M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 11 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.13% | $22.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 12 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.09% | $19.9M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 13 | SLYV State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Value ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.36% | $17.7M | $4.9B | 2026-11-05 |
| 14 | VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Vanguard | 0.23% | $13.9M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 15 | BSJR Invesco BulletShares 2027 High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | Invesco | 1.20% | $11.4M | — | 2026-11-04 |
| 16 | PRFZ Invesco RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETF | Nport | 0.31% | $8.7M | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 17 | VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.44% | $8.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 18 | FYC First Trust Small Cap Growth AlphaDEX® Fund | First Trust | 0.60% | $7.9M | $1.3B | 2026-11-06 |
| 19 | VIS Vanguard Industrials ETF | Vanguard | 0.06% | $5.0M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 20 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $4.8M | $93.2B | 2026-11-06 |
| 21 | MGMT BALLAST SMALL/MID CAP ETF | Nport | 2.30% | $4.1M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 22 | FYX First Trust Small Cap Core AlphaDEX® Fund | First Trust | 0.28% | $3.8M | $1.4B | 2026-11-06 |
| 23 | VTWV Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.26% | $3.6M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 24 | VT Vanguard Total World Stock ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $3.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 25 | RWJ Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF | Invesco | 0.14% | $2.9M | — | 2026-11-05 |
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $705.21M | $38.33M | $0.29 | $156.48M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $707.70M | $31.77M | $0.21 | $-117.34M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $682.34M | $173.94M | $1.26 | $79.56M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $636.17M | $29.11M | $0.21 | $39.17M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $604.65M | $19.56M | $0.14 | $71.22M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $607.72M | $14.72M | $0.10 | $18.46M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $603.12M | $26.32M | $0.19 | $109.25M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $607.18M | $-32.51M | $-0.25 | $31.24M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $605.67M | $18.83M | $0.14 | $83.28M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $608.28M | $20.95M | $0.17 | $47.71M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $602.78M | $20.36M | $0.16 | $120.63M |
| Q2 '23 | 2023-06-30 | $593.89M | $29.57M | $0.24 | $14.71M |
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
GEO vs Peers
Related companies, largest first| Company | Market cap | P/E | Revenue growth | YTD | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX Terex Corporation | $6.2B | 29.4 | +40.1% | +5.9% | 42 |
| LSTR Landstar System Inc | $4.8B | 30.9 | +10.7% | −0.5% | 54 |
| BCO The Brink's Company | $4.5B | 30.0 | +7.3% | −2.0% | 44 |
| SEI Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | $3.8B | 76.2 | +70.5% | +22.8% | 40 |
| AZZ AZZ Inc. | $3.8B | 23.8 | +9.5% | +20.5% | 38 |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | $3.7B | 15.1 | +12.7% | +86.7% | 24 |
| NRP Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.6B | 15.3 | −14.3% | +15.0% | 6 |
| CRTO Criteo S.A. Ordinary Shares | $759M | 14.0 | −11.1% | −17.6% | 73 |
| RCMT RCM Technologies Inc | $228M | 15.9 | +9.3% | +69.5% | — |
| Peer median | $3.8B | 26.6 | +9.4% | +10.5% | 42 |
P/E uses the latest reported trailing-12-month diluted EPS; "—" means no positive earnings or no data.
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.