MFC Manulife Financial Corp.
XNYS 43.42 DelayedStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
MFC
$43.42
—
Key stats
$43.42
After hours
$43.46
+0.10%
- 52-Week Range
- $30.75 – $45.33
- YTD
- +19.81%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 3.29
- Straddle Price
- $1.52
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.31
- Market Cap
- $72.1B
Fair Value
MODEL: LONG
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.18% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.91 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.71% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 5.15% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +36.5pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Debt / Equity | 0.15 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $43.68 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $43.64 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 13.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-13.9B |
Peers used for multiples: BBVA, BMO, BNS, CM, ENB, RY, SHOP, TD
Model Conviction
35%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Oct 28, 2026
$42.53
α -2.0%
rank 15%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 26, 2026
$45.09
α +3.8%
rank 12%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 25, 2026
$45.15
α +4.0%
rank 14%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $29.09 | 23% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $43.68 | 48% | stability 84% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $44.89 | 29% | 23 strikes · skew +1.07 |
As of 2026-09-29 · updated
About
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $72.1B
Manulife Financial is one of the Big Three Canadian life insurers. The firm provides life insurance, annuities, asset management, and wealth management products to individuals and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. The Canadian business segment contributes approximately 21% of 2025 adjusted earnings. The Asia segment operates across 12 countries and contributes around 38% of earnings, with a significant presence in Hong Kong and Singapore. The US business, which primarily operates under the John Hancock brand, contributes about 16% of earnings. Manulife's global asset and …
Summary
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composite
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No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +2.84% | 6 |
| Feb | +1.62% | 6 |
| Mar | -0.18% | 6 |
| Apr | +0.30% | 6 |
| May | -0.24% | 6 |
| Jun | -0.91% | 6 |
| Jul | +2.50% | 6 |
| Aug | -1.58% | 6 |
| Sep | +0.25% | 6 |
| Oct | +2.18% | 5 |
| Nov | +5.02% | 5 |
| Dec | +2.32% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $43.69
SMA 50: $43.70
SMA 200: $39.15
Current: $43.37
EMA 12: $43.70
EMA 26: $43.62
MACD: 0.0832 | Signal: -0.0607
BULLISH
ADX (14): 11.51
RANGE
+DI: 20.37
−DI: 25.10
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 47.33
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 37.44
Stoch %D: 39.38
Williams %R: -72.84
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $44.82
BB Lower: $42.55
NEUTRAL
OBV: -21,732,948
Vol SMA 20: 1,718,199
Vol ROC: -40.79%
ATR: $0.70
True Range: $0.46
HV 20: 20.0%
HV 30: 18.6%
HV 60: 17.5%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-09-30T00:00:00 – 2026-09-28T00:00:00
AI Analysis
LLM Stock Analysis Report: MFC
Executive Summary
Overall assessment: NEUTRAL with confidence level 7/10.
Key drivers:
- Technical indicators show a moderate uptrend, with MACD indicating bullish momentum.
- Recent news headlines are generally positive, with dividend announcements and increased distributions.
- Options market signals suggest moderate volatility, with a put/call volume ratio indicating bearish sentiment.
Primary risks:
- Potential pullback from overbought conditions (RSI 55.25).
- Options market pricing a moderate move by expiration, which may lead to increased uncertainty.
Investment thesis: MFC is trading within a consolidation phase, with technical indicators suggesting a continued uptrend. However, recent news headlines and options market signals indicate potential for increased volatility and risk. As such, I recommend a cautious approach, considering hedging strategies or adjusting position sizing accordingly.
Recent news sentiment impact: The positive dividend announcements and increased distributions have contributed to the overall neutral bias, as they demonstrate the company's financial health and ability to generate returns for shareholders.
Technical Analysis
Trend direction:
- Short-term: Uptrend (SMA 20 > current price)
- Medium-term: Consolidation phase
- Long-term: Uptrend (SMA 200 < current price)
Support/resistance levels: The upper Bollinger band ($40.52) serves as a key resistance level, while the lower band ($37.34) provides support.
Momentum signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (55.25), indicating no clear buy or sell signal.
- MACD signal: Bullish (0.31 / -0.21 / 0.52).
- Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze, with the price trading near the middle band.
Volume analysis: The volume SMA 20 indicates a moderate increase in buying interest, while the OBV suggests a sustained uptrend.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent headlines summary:
- Positive dividend announcements and increased distributions.
- No significant negative news has emerged recently.
Sentiment assessment: Aggregate news sentiment is positive, with three out of six recent headlines contributing to this bias.
Catalyst identification: Upcoming earnings announcements may provide further insights into the company's financial performance and guidance.
Market narrative: The positive news headlines align with the technical signals, suggesting a continued uptrend. However, the options market signals indicate potential for increased volatility, which may contradict this narrative.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk assessment:
- Beta: 0.96 (moderate risk relative to the market).
- Stock volatility: 0.21 (relatively low).
Volatility regime: Current volatility is moderate, with a historical average of 26.6% (HV30) and 24.1% (HV60).
Options market signals:
- IV rank: 36.4% (medium), indicating historically moderate volatility.
- Current IV: 48.8%, pricing in a potential move by expiration.
Downside protection: The lower Bollinger band ($37.34) serves as a support level, while the options market signals suggest a potential move downward.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector performance: MFC is performing relatively well within its sector, with a moderate uptrend.
Institutional activity: Volume patterns suggest institutional interest, particularly in calls.
Correlation analysis: The stock has a moderate correlation (0.56) with the market, indicating that it generally follows broader market trends.
Relative valuation: MFC is trading within its historical range, with no clear signs of overvaluation or undervaluation.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical price levels:
- Support: $37.34 (lower Bollinger band)
- Resistance: $40.52 (upper Bollinger band)
Breakout/breakdown levels:
- Breakout: $41.25 (next resistance level)
- Breakdown: $36.50 (next support level)
Time-sensitive catalysts: Upcoming earnings announcements may provide further insights into the company's financial performance and guidance.
Risk management: Consider hedging strategies or adjusting position sizing to account for potential volatility and risk.
Generated
News
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 3.29
- IV Rank (7D)
- 3.29
- Avg IV
- 35.4%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.52
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.52
- P/C Volume
- 0.31
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
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—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.73
- Correlation (SPY)
- 48.5%
- R²
- 0.23
- Ann. Volatility
- 19.7%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-06-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 1,708,000,000 (as of 2025-12-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
15 filers$303.92M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | $84.82M | 27.91% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $74.92M | 24.65% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $47.31M | 15.57% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | ROYAL BANK OF CANADA Custodian | $40.51M | 13.33% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Twin Tree Management, LP | $13.05M | 4.29% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $10.13M | 3.33% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $8.63M | 2.84% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ Custodian | $6.08M | 2.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $6.08M | 2.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $3.92M | 1.29% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Murchinson Ltd. | $3.08M | 1.01% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $2.94M | 0.97% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.48M | 0.49% | 2025-09-30 |
| 14 | Walleye Capital LLC | $826.40K | 0.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 15 | Walleye Trading LLC | $153.94K | 0.05% | 2026-06-30 |
13 filers$907.21M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROYAL BANK OF CANADA Custodian | $477.33M | 52.62% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $163.24M | 17.99% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | $150.75M | 16.62% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $77.99M | 8.60% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $11.50M | 1.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Twin Tree Management, LP | $6.25M | 0.69% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $5.90M | 0.65% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Walleye Trading LLC | $4.77M | 0.53% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Murchinson Ltd. | $3.08M | 0.34% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $2.29M | 0.25% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Capula Management Ltd | $1.84M | 0.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Walleye Capital LLC | $1.44M | 0.16% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $824.60K | 0.09% | 2025-09-30 |
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.