Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.(TSM)

Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.

TSM iron condor setups TSM expected move TSM IV rank history

Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.

Snapshot
$426.95
52-Week Range
$205.87 – $450.16
YTD
+33.58%
IV Rank (30D)
19.92
Straddle Price
$47.70
P/C Vol Ratio
0.78
Market Cap
$2153.3B
Fair Value
-22.3% vs price
Confidence: 64% Alpha Score: 0.18

A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.

  • DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
  • Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
  • DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
  • P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
  • Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
  • Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
  • Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
  • Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
10-yr Treasury (rf)4.49%
Beta vs SPY1.00
Cost of Equity (CAPM)9.99% (VRP-adj)
WACC9.97%
Volatility Risk Premium+13.2pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps
Effective Tax Rate21.0%
Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input)+3.0%
DCF Horizon5 years explicit + fade
Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM)×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S)
Quality Score0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF)
SMA 50$389.03 (Market Anchor value)
SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid$414.73
Bollinger Width / SMA203.7% (drives anchor stability)
Net Debt$0.0B
Peers used for multiples: AMD, AVGO, GOOGL, INTC, MRVL, MU, NVDA, QCOM
Blended Fair Value
$331.79
Current Price
$426.80
Deviation
-22.3%
Forward-Return Rank LONG gates ✓
?
Horizon Expected α z Pred Blended z Rank % Active?
21d -3.3% ⚠ -0.16 -0.07 19.4% —
42d -4.5% ⚠ +0.01 +0.02 20.9% —
63d -2.9% ⚠ +0.46 +0.24 34.5% —
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon). For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference. ⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
MethodImplied PriceWeightDetail
DCF n/a 0%
DDM (Gordon) $79.65 21%
Peer P/E n/a 0% median 46.6× · 7 peers
Peer EV/EBITDA n/a 0% median 38.3× · 8 peers
Peer P/B n/a 0% median 14.2× · 8 peers
Peer P/S n/a 0% median 20.1× · 8 peers
Market Anchor (SMA50) $389.03 53% stability 100% (BB-width)
Options Expected (B-L 30d) $419.04 26% 71 strikes · skew +0.30
As of 2026-06-08 · updated 2026-06-08 21:00:06.594000
Info
Exchange
XNYS
Market Cap
$2153.3B

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with about 70% market share in 2025. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in Taiwan in 1994 and as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious base of customers, including Apple, AMD, …

Price History
Seasonality
MonthAvg ReturnYears of Data
Jan +6.66% 6
Feb -3.80% 6
Mar -1.73% 6
Apr -1.56% 6
May +8.86% 6
Jun +2.79% 6
Jul +0.33% 5
Aug +1.31% 5
Sep +0.34% 5
Oct +2.44% 5
Nov +9.00% 5
Dec +2.53% 5
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $415.49
SMA 50: $391.04
SMA 200: $327.29
Current: $426.80
EMA 12: $424.49
EMA 26: $413.17
MACD: 11.3204 | Signal: -0.1246
BULLISH
ADX (14): 26.69
TREND
+DI: 21.97
−DI: 15.97
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 55.57
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 67.44
Stoch %D: 76.32
Williams %R: -35.89
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $447.41
BB Lower: $383.57
NEUTRAL
OBV: 379,458,722
Vol SMA 20: 12,713,492
Vol ROC: 56.98%
ATR: $16.88
True Range: $18.64
HV 20: 44.2%
HV 30: 41.9%
HV 60: 42.9%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-08T21:15:09.801000
Date Range: 2024-06-10T00:00:00 – 2026-06-08T00:00:00
AI Analysis

Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.

Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.

News
TheStreetT3·3d ago
TSMC CEO sends blunt message to memory chip rivals
One of the most important chipmakers on the planet could be squeezing its customers right now, as the AI shortage gives it every excuse. But its CEO said he won’t. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (CSMC) Chief Executive Officer, C.C. Wei, used the company’s annual shareholder…
Geopolitics$TSM
Options Activity
IV Rank (30D)
19.92
IV Rank (7D)
79.19
Avg IV
60.6%
Straddle (30D)
$47.70
Straddle (7D)
$19.48
P/C Volume
0.78
Spread Scanner GPU
Full Algorithm Docs ↗

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
Beta (1Y vs SPY)
2.03
Correlation (SPY)
67.6%
R²
0.46
Ann. Volatility
36.4%
SPY Volatility
12.1%

High volatility - stock moves more than market

Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

  • Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
  • Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
  • % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
  • Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

3,345 filers772,629,861 shares$243.25B value
# Filer Shares Value % of Total % of Float Period
1 FMR LLC Custodian 60,393,190 $20.41B 8.39% — 2026-03-31
2 Capital World Investors 32,886,937 $11.11B 4.57% — 2026-03-31
3 Sanders Capital, LLC 28,060,092 $9.48B 3.90% — 2026-03-31
4 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Custodian 23,984,642 $7.59B 3.12% — 2026-03-31
5 Fisher Asset Management, LLC 18,617,691 $6.29B 2.59% — 2026-03-31
6 BlackRock, Inc. Custodian 18,224,186 $6.16B 2.53% — 2026-03-31
7 BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ Custodian 14,107,771 $4.77B 1.96% — 2026-03-31
8 MORGAN STANLEY Custodian 13,513,371 $4.11B 1.69% — 2025-12-31
9 JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC 12,021,825 $4.06B 1.67% — 2026-03-31
10 Capital International Investors 11,306,653 $3.79B 1.56% — 2026-03-31
11 UBS Group AG Custodian 11,007,197 $3.72B 1.53% — 2026-03-31
12 MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ 9,677,855 $3.40B 1.40% — 2026-03-31
13 Capital Research Global Investors 9,989,672 $3.37B 1.39% — 2026-03-31
14 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian 9,401,594 $3.18B 1.31% — 2026-03-31
15 COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC 9,283,547 $3.14B 1.29% — 2026-03-31
16 Bank of New York Mellon Corp Custodian 9,196,454 $3.11B 1.28% — 2026-03-31
17 WCM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC 9,327,592 $2.95B 1.21% — 2026-03-31
18 JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC 7,917,824 $2.65B 1.09% — 2026-03-31
19 ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P. 8,482,882 $2.58B 1.06% — 2026-03-31
20 WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP Custodian 7,597,163 $2.57B 1.06% — 2026-03-31
21 FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC Custodian 7,327,193 $2.48B 1.02% — 2026-03-31
22 NORTHERN TRUST CORP Custodian 6,509,047 $2.20B 0.90% — 2026-03-31
23 AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC 6,348,986 $2.15B 0.88% — 2026-03-31
24 ROYAL BANK OF CANADA Custodian 6,293,285 $2.13B 0.87% — 2026-03-31
25 BROWN ADVISORY INC 6,140,795 $2.08B 0.85% — 2026-03-31
95 filers$23.71B notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian $6.56B 27.66% 2026-03-31
2 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian $3.93B 16.56% 2026-03-31
3 JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian $1.47B 6.22% 2026-03-31
4 ALKEON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC $1.40B 5.92% 2026-03-31
5 CTC LLC $1.15B 4.86% 2026-03-31
6 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian $1.07B 4.53% 2026-03-31
7 IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian $996.85M 4.21% 2026-03-31
8 Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC $930.31M 3.92% 2026-03-31
9 UBS Group AG Custodian $595.62M 2.51% 2026-03-31
10 WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian $499.03M 2.11% 2025-09-30
11 Optiver Holding B.V. $495.87M 2.09% 2026-03-31
12 HSBC HOLDINGS PLC Custodian $461.02M 1.94% 2026-03-31
13 Kultura Capital Management LP $372.49M 1.57% 2026-03-31
14 Situational Awareness Partners LP $354.85M 1.50% 2026-03-31
15 Situational Awareness LP $354.85M 1.50% 2026-03-31
16 SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian $255.15M 1.08% 2026-03-31
17 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Custodian $241.11M 1.02% 2026-03-31
18 MAPLELANE CAPITAL, LLC $236.56M 1.00% 2026-03-31
19 Walleye Trading LLC $190.16M 0.80% 2026-03-31
20 BARCLAYS PLC Custodian $180.80M 0.76% 2026-03-31
21 Tidal Investments LLC $155.59M 0.66% 2026-03-31
22 GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian $150.76M 0.64% 2026-03-31
23 Governors Lane LP $149.71M 0.63% 2026-03-31
24 CITIGROUP INC Custodian $149.17M 0.63% 2026-03-31
25 PEAK6 LLC $142.21M 0.60% 2026-03-31
97 filers$29.19B notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian $4.76B 16.32% 2026-03-31
2 JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian $4.33B 14.84% 2026-03-31
3 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian $2.95B 10.09% 2026-03-31
4 Optiver Holding B.V. $1.66B 5.67% 2026-03-31
5 HSBC HOLDINGS PLC Custodian $1.38B 4.71% 2026-03-31
6 CTC LLC $1.35B 4.63% 2026-03-31
7 IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian $1.23B 4.22% 2026-03-31
8 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian $1.10B 3.78% 2026-03-31
9 UBS Group AG Custodian $970.13M 3.32% 2026-03-31
10 TOMS Capital Investment Management LP $756.81M 2.59% 2026-03-31
11 Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC $635.79M 2.18% 2026-03-31
12 MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian $564.85M 1.94% 2026-03-31
13 PEAK6 LLC $535.62M 1.84% 2026-03-31
14 Situational Awareness Partners LP $535.11M 1.83% 2026-03-31
15 Situational Awareness LP $535.11M 1.83% 2026-03-31
16 BARCLAYS PLC Custodian $534.84M 1.83% 2026-03-31
17 SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian $498.48M 1.71% 2026-03-31
18 WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian $389.82M 1.34% 2025-09-30
19 D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian $386.61M 1.32% 2026-03-31
20 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Custodian $333.05M 1.14% 2026-03-31
21 TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL $332.17M 1.14% 2026-03-31
22 Clean Energy Transition LLP $317.67M 1.09% 2026-03-31
23 Walleye Trading LLC $297.23M 1.02% 2026-03-31
24 GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian $276.38M 0.95% 2026-03-31
25 Hudson Bay Capital Management LP $226.43M 0.78% 2026-03-31
ETF Holders
# ETF Provider Weight $ Exposure ETF AUM As Of
Fundamentals

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics
  • Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
  • Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
  • Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
  • Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
  • Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
  • YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
  • Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
  • Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.